Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, December 30, 2023

We hope all RTSS subscribers caught some piece of our $94 winner in the 7th race at Fair Grounds on Friday. Here’s our analysis of that one, from Friday’s report:

#11 Fleet Frost. (20-1). She showed early speed in both of her starts.  After fading badly at a mile and a sixteenth, she gets Lasix, blinkers, a sharp workout, a cutback in distance and a positive rider switch. That’s a lot of positive moves for a 20-1 shot.

Let’s dig out more value on Saturday!

FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 2. Optional Claimer $15,000. 1 Mile and 70 Yards. Dirt.

False Favorite: #5 Just Passing Thru (5-2).

Reason: This versatile mare comes in off of a long layoff. Her most recent wins came in restricted claiming races on a lesser circuit against turf horses. Her lack of early speed will require her to run past better horses than that on a surface that might not be her best.

BETS

#3 Miss Tulsa (8-1). Her last win at this track came at this approximate level and distance, with Grant Forster training and Reylu Gutierrez riding. At her best, she’s fast enough to run past her rivals late.

#6 Thetruthisthetruth (7-2). This win machine will likely have a clear early lead as she stretches out from a sprint. She managed to dominate her foes when trying a mile at Remington Park.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #6 Thetruthisthetruth (7-2), 88
  • #3 Miss Tulsa (8-1), 83
  • #9 Carry On (5-1), 83

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 2. Maiden Claimer $35,000. 1 Mile. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #4 Parakeet (4-1).

Reason: He debuts for less than his sire’s $50,000 stud fee. Trainer Wesley Ward also attempts two turns with him upon debut. His pedigree suggests he’ll do well in marathon turf events. Maybe one mile on a turf track favorable to early speed types isn’t his strength.

BETS

#7 K Crown (6-1). He debuts for George Weaver, who excels with horses debuting on turf. The class level seems appropriate.

#10 My Life Story (9-2). His debut, contested on synthetic around two turns, was decent. We can see from his pace-pressing effort that he has some gumption and some natural speed. Let’s bet that his experience edge over the first-time starters will pay off.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.