Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, December 24, 2022

A few times in the past month we’ve noted the accuracy of the recently added “Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs” list. When one of our top 2 selections fails to win, frequently a horse from this short and carefully culled list is the upsetter.

Yesterday’s final race at Fair Grounds, a $5,000 restricted claimer we referred to as a bottom of the bottom of the barrel contest, became Exhibit #1. The horses lining up against the false favorite that held the highest RELEVANT speed figures were tightly bunched on our 4-horse list of contenders:

  • #5 Craft Princess 63
  • #7 Kaitlyn’s Court 63
  • #8 Lake Runner 62
  • #1 Allstar Magic 61

We went with #1 and #5, but the results were a different and spectacular mix:

  • #8 Lake Runner won at 28-1
  • #7 Kaitlyn’s Court finished second at 12-1.
  • #5 Crafty Princess grabbed third place.

The 50-cent trifecta paid over $800.

You can’t count on cashing long prices like that every weekend, but Friday’s results show that carefully culled list is worth focusing on. We’ll work on specific ways to use the list. Until then, watch for overlays, especially when the list shows such tightly bunched top figures.


RACE 4. Abundantly Stakes. 5 furlongs. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #6 Miss J McKay (3-1).

Reason: Although she won this race last year, it was by accident. The frontrunning favorite Miss Auramet “hit gate, sawed off early.” Other than that win, Miss J McKay has come up short in most tries at 5.5 furlongs or less. She seems further compromised by the presence of multiple rivals that win 25% or more of their races at this distance.


#4 Miss Auramet (5-1). She has been a big fish in a small pond, with 3 wins and 3 placings in 8 abbreviated sprints at GP. Surprisingly this forward-running gal faces few committed frontrunners in this talent-laden 10-horse field. Drawn inside the other Speed, she’ll likely own the rail and the lead turning for home.

#7 Imagery (10-1). Her 50% win rate on turf didn’t inspire her prior trainer to stop running her on all-weather surfaces (where she is just 1 for 14). Mark Casse isn’t a super-active claiming trainer, but he and Gary Barber paid a handsome $50,000 for her and immediately switch her to turf. They add Irad Ortiz to the mix, suggesting they’re serious in this attempt.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs (longer list than typical suggests an unexpected result)

  • #2 Poseidon’s Passion (6-1), 93
  • #4 Miss Auramet (5-1), 93
  • #1 Phantom Vision (8-1), 92 (alternative pick in case of scratch)
  • #3 Mamba Wamba (12-1), 91
  • #7 Imagery (10-1), 90
  • #9 Static Fire (5-1), 90


RACE 3. Claiming $5,000 N2y. 7 furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #6 Lets Take It Izzy (7-5).

Reason: Shortly after being claimed for $8,000 ,off a negative class drop, this runner was given a long vacation. She came back with two strong efforts at the $10,000 level and was benched again. Now she gets tossed in for half the price. The downward spiral seems likely to continue.


#2 Annie Up Buck (12-1). Although she appears ill suited to sprinting and racing on dirt, she’s tied for highest BRIS speed figure. Annie also shows 3 wins in 4 tries in restricted $5,000 company.

#3 Voodayo (3-1). She triumphed several times in restricted company at Prairie Meadows and returns to restricted company here.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #2 Annie Up Buck (12-1), 71
  • #3 Voodayo (3-1), 71
  • #7 Takestwotowiggle (7-1), 70