Lazy Bettor Guides False Favorite Report, Saturday, December 23, 2023

Friday saw a return to normal, with 2 of 3 false favorites losing and the other one scratching. We had one winner, at 6-5, in a race wherein the false favorite scratched along with our second selection.
We failed to find a winner in our two races at the FAIR GROUNDS, but two of three horses in our “Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs” list completed one of the exactas.
RACE 3. Blushing K. D. Stakes. 1 Mile and 1/16th. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #3 Lovely Princess (8-5).
Reason: She’s winless in graded stakes and has three near-miss efforts in nongraded stakes. In the nongraded losses, she seemed to just grind it out through the stretch and actually weaken near the finish. Even her N2x allowance win was a 4-horse blanket finish. In short, it seems she’ll lose to any half-decent nonclaimer she faces.
#1 Colors of the Wind (6-1). She has been off since June, but her work pattern is very positive. And she looks like the only true late closer in a field of front and midpack runners.
#2 Dana’s Beauty (10-1). Her fast and consistent works went to waste last time, as her return performance was taken off the turf. The move up in class seems to be a sign of confidence by the ultra-sharp Joe Sharp.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
#2 Dana’s Beauty (10-1), 88
#1 Colors of the Wind (6-1), 87
#7 Creative Cairo (4-1), 87
#4 Tasweya (5-1), 86
#5 Yankee Dollar (6-1), 86

RACE 5. Claiming $12,500. 7 Furlongs. Dirt
False Favorite: #6 Self Taught (9-5).
Reason: This late-rallying gelding takes a suspicious class drop. He was laid off after easily defeating horses at the $20,000 level. When he was confidently raised into an optional claimer, he turned in a clunker. Now he parachutes down to $12,500. What happened to all that trainer optimism?
#1 Toscanito (10-1). He takes a big move up off the claim by Kelly Breen. A sharp workout and a switch to Breen’s favorite rider, Paco Lopez, add to the appeal.
#2 Joe Di Baggio (6-1). He drops from optional claimers back to a more appropriate level.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
#1 Toscanito (10-1), 85
#2 Joe Di Baggio (6-1), 85
#4 Rebelde (5-2), 84