Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, December 2, 2023

RTSS correctly identified 3 more false favorites on Friday, bringing us to a perfect 9 for 9 for this weekend and last weekend. We also came up with the 7-1 winner in the first race at Aqueduct, giving us 4 winners in the past 9 races.

On to Saturday…

AQUEDUCT

RACE 3. Optional Claimer $62,500N2x. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #2 Winit (5-2).

Reason: With several “slow into stride” type of comments in his chart, you can see why he is often close to winning but wins only slowly run races. Maybe the recent early blast with blinkers on has helped him turn a corner, but we’ll bet he continues to disappoint more often than he wins.

BETS

#1 No Burn (4-1). He returns from a long layoff with a series of long, strong works. He’s 6 for 11 at this distance and has won 2 of his past 4 starts, including a runaway at this level. And he has won 4 of his past 6 starts with Dylan Davis riding. You get a lot of positive stats for your money.

#3 Trafalgar (7-2). This Linda Rice trainee draws the barn’s number 1 jockey, Jose Ortiz, in the first run off of a claim. He’s another entrant with long, strong works off of a layoff, as well as a good record at the distance.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #3 Trafalgar (7-2), 97
  • #1 No Burn (4-1), 96
  • #8 Set Sail (4-1), 92

RACE 7. Grade 2 Demoiselle Stakes. 1 Mile and 1/8th. Dirt.

False Favorite: #3 Life Talk (8-5).

Reason: Her slow-starting ways will eventually limit her ability to defeat top graded stakes fillies. To succeed when giving away such an important tactical advantage as forward positioning early in a top-level stakes race, a horse must be extraordinary. Think Zenyatta or Street Sense. Her running style so far suggests her career will look more like that of Zandon, often in the money but seldom winning. Maybe she’ll outpace this inexperienced crew, but we’d rather take better odds on possible up-and-comers.

BETS

#4 Most of All (15-1). Bill Mott trains this rising Godolphin star. She romped over MSW company by 10 lengths in the slop. With four works in November, she probably has been polished up and improved since that win.

#6 Caress (12-1). Her resume includes a fast debut win that earned a solid BRIS speed figure. The comments suggest she struggled to find her best stride when stuck on the inside in a stakes at Laurel. We’ll assume this $450,000 filly can return to the level of talent shown in her debut.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple lightly raced horses.

FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 11. State-Bred Allowance N2L. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #5 Like This (3-1).

Reason: This gelding struggles to maintain stretch momentum. He often gets a clear lead, but only once has he ever held that advantage to the finish. His 7-length romp over MSW types at Evangeline Downs, therefore, was likely against a pretty weak or totally paceless group.

BETS

#1 Anders Smile (10-1). His only failure at this level occurred after a long layoff at a distance not particularly suited to him. He returns to a mile after that necessary prep, and we expect a big improvement.

#4 Tripple D Ruller (12-1). He dueled throughout a 5-furlong debut on the deep Delta Downs surface and drew away from a field of 9 rivals. Maybe this is too big a class jump, but he faces a field full of repeat losers at this level.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #6 Commanche Warrior (9-2), 80
  • #2 Twofexusnexus (12-1), 78
  • #1 Anders Smile (10-1), 77
  • #4 Trpple D Ruller (15-1), 74