Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, December 16, 2023

Friday’s RTSS report, covering three races, delivered one winner at 5-1 and one placer at 11-1. And we went undefeated against the two false favorites that remained in the lineup. We’re on a streak of 5 winners in the past 9 races.

Let’s grab a few more on Saturday.

AQUEDUCT

RACE 1. Maiden Special Weights. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #5 Strat Mo Matic (2-1).

Reason: Regular readers know how we love to bet against horses debuting as the favorite. This son of Uncle Mo sports superb works, but he was purchased for a pittance compared to the stud fee for Uncle Mo and the average sales price for his offspring. Also, Uncle Mo stands as one of North America’s best stamina influences. Is sprinting really this colt’s best game?

BETS

#1 First Trumpet (8-1). He ran impressively in his past few races after adding blinkers, flashing early speed against tougher MSW types. Charlton Baker continues to protect this modestly bred runner from being claimed. With the top 2-year-olds headed south, maybe he’ll find sufficient class relief at a price.

#4 Ridgewood Runner (5-2). His second-place finish in early October would likely be sufficient to dominate this field. We’ll overlook his troubled trip last time and peg him as the horse to beat.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.

RACE 8. Stakes $500,000. 7 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #2 My Shea D Lady (7-2).

Reason: Her three failures against NY breds in state-bred stakes makes this class raise seem way too optimistic.

BETS

#5 Tour Jete (8-1). She blew the break in her debut and then closed a ton of ground while chasing a dead-slow pace.

#11 Soloshot (6-1). She was purchased for #200,000, won easily at first asking and won again when moved immediately into stakes company. If you ignore her most recent race, you get decent odds on a horse mostly meeting or exceeding expectations.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple lightly raced horses.

FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 1. State-Bred Claiming #5,000 N2L. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #4 Reverent (7-5).

Reason: This gelding is 0 for 13 this year and shows three losses at the $5,000 level.

BETS

#6 Lone Star Max (8-1). Working well for his return from a long layoff, he faces a weak field. The jockey who won with him returns. That’s a pair of positive factors in a race full of negatives.

#7 Chad’s Flash (7-2), He flashed speed in his second start off a layoff. Now he gets a much-needed class drop. If he gets clear early, which seems likely, there won’t be much chasing him home.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #7 Chad’s Flash (7-2), 69
  • #6 Lone Star Max (8-1), 62