Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, December 10, 2022

We followed a decent weekend last week with a nearly flawless Friday. All 3 RTSS false favorites lost, and we picked winners in all 3 races.

Saturday’s races don’t contain famous equine celebrities, so we’ll have to decipher lower level races (as we did on Friday) to see who is False.

AQUEDUCT

RACE 7. Maiden Claimer $75,000. 6 furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #7 Inspeightoftrainer (3-2).

Reason: The only competitive effort on this runner’s six-race resume was followed by a layoff and two 13-length losses. The class drop to $50,000 last time didn’t help. We’re betting that a rise to $75,000 isn’t going to solve any of his problems.

BETS

#1 Sixwillberich (9-2). This runner’s workout in :47.0 on October 15 suggests he’s capable of much more than he showed in his MSW debut. The drop into claiming company should help him move toward a winning effort.

#3 Ee Yah (5-2). Blinkers and a drop out of MSW company produced a near-miss effort two races ago. Last time out he challenged early and faded badly in an MSW race that saw the winner and third-place finisher come back to win their next time out. He returns to the right level for a red-hot trainer (David Jacobson).

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 3. Maiden Claimer $16,000. 5.5 furlongs.  Dirt.

False Favorite: #4 Stephanie My Love (3-1).

Reason: After showing a bit of stalking ability against much better horses, she got dropped to this level and found herself in the rear guard throughout the early stages. That’s puzzling until you consider that it was a negative plunge off a long layoff. You can also see that she hit the 4-furlong mark in :47.0, the same splits she posted on dirt at Delaware. So maybe she’s not getting as much class relief as you’d expect. Or her physical abilities have declined. Either way, she’s a favorite worth betting against.

BETS

#6 La Buffalita (7-2). Her 3-furlong workouts show a healthy bit of zip in preparation for her debut. Trainer Jose D’Angelo sports an 18% success rate and positive ROI with debut horses. Jockey Luis Saez excels at all-weather sprints, winning with 25% of his mounts in that situation. Saez also holds a positive ROI for his mounts on first-time starters.

#7 Gi Gi’s Golden Gal (5-1). She flashed speed and good gate skills in her debut. Dropping from $35,000 company to $16,000 should help her stretch that speed further than in her debut.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.

RACE 5. Maiden Claimer $25,000. 6 furlongs.

False Favorite: #4 Golden Talent (4-5).

Reason: I hesitate to bet against a horse who flashed speed at higher class levels, but I’ll make an exception here. His stretch fades were severe, and his pedigree suggests short, low-level sprints will give him the best shot at winning. We think this race isn’t short enough and the class level isn’t low enough.

BETS

#1 Matro (7-2). He debuted at $50,000 and now drops to $25,000 while adding blinkers. Jose D’Angelo hits 35% winners when he adds blinkers on a horse for the first time. Several works prior to his debut suggest this runner possesses far more early speed than he showed in his debut.

#6 No Deliberation (5-2). He blasted through swift fractions in his first try off the claim for Trombetta (and with blinkers on for the first time). He held well for 7 furlongs and probably would’ve won if the race was at 6 furlongs. Well, it’s 6 furlongs now.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.