Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, August 19, 2023

RTSS Friday nailed two low-priced winners in 4 races. Maybe Saturday will land one or two at a price.


RACE 6. State-Bred Maiden Claimer $40,000. 1 Mile and 1/16th. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #9 Leadership Ability (5-2).

Reason: He ran a lackluster race in his debut last year and returns off a long layoff in a route with Lasix added. The modest pedigree doesn’t lean toward turf, and none of Chad Brown’s top riders signed on. There’s nothing especially compelling about him, and we see a few minor details that look like red flags.


#3 Berning Honor (7-2). He takes his first shot against turf claimers with the top BRIS speed figure in hand. Schettino switches riders to Prat, as he did in last year’s just-miss attempt against state-bred MSW company.

#5 Pinstripepizzo (8-1). He drops from MSW company to take his first try against claimers. The pedigree is superb, and he showed good early speed when facing tougher foes.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.

RACE 10. Optional Claimer $62,500 N2x. 1 Mile. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #9 Verbal (5-2).

Reason: This Chad Brown trainee keeps getting bet as if he was a stakes horse, but his races since returning from a layoff of nearly a year raise doubts as to whether he’s even allowance caliber. His pedigree is modest also, and the layoffs after all six lifetime starts are further reasons to bet against him.


#4 Storm the Court (8-1). This tough stakes competitor returns to the allowance level and to turf. Thomas Amoss is 5 for 11 at this meet and appears to have another live runner here.

#7 Running with Scissors (10-1). This 7-year-old vet recently won at this level and appears to be plenty fit to do it again off the claim by Joe Sharp.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #4 Storm the Court (8-1), 95
  • #7 Running with Scissors (10-1), 95
  • #1 Duke of Hazard (8-1), 94


RACE 4. Claiming $6,250. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #1 Earth (2-1).

Reason: Six furlongs looks like a bridge too far for this 8-year-old gelding. His last win came at a distance of 5.5 furlongs, and he shows three stretch fades in his past three races at 6 furlongs at this level. Seven of his nine career wins came on turf or synthetic surfaces, so dirt has never been his favored surface.


#3 Joe DiBaggio (5-2). This old distance specialist drops from a lively effort at the $8,000 level. Placed at the right distance and class level in his third start off a layoff, he looks ready to roll.

#7 Sarawat (3-1). This converted router drops in from the same $8,000 race as Joe DiBaggio, where he finished a head behind that one. He looks to be fit as he faces a weak field.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #3 Joe DiBaggio (5-2), 83
  • #7 Sarawat (3-1) 83