Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Friday, April 28, 2023

RTSS continues its hot streak. Last week we picked 5 winners in 7 races! We hope that adds to your Kentucky Derby cash arsenal.

This week we’ll stick with the tracks that are making us money: Aqueduct and Gulfstream.

AQUEDUCT

RACE 5. Claiming $12,500. 1 mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #3 Doin’ittherightway (7-2).

Reason: Linda Rice becomes the third trainer in this gelding’s past four races to attempt a win by dropping him below the price paid. Winless since March 2022, this runner doesn’t inspire confidence.

BETS

#5 No More Talk (9-2). Nothing comes close to this 9-year-old gelding as far as recent speed figures are concerned. He wheels right back off a big performance. We’ll bet he has another top effort left. We’ll make a solo play here, with bets to win and place.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #5 No More Talk (9-2), 92

RACE 7. Optional Claimer $62,500. 6 furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #7 Nova Rags (5-2).

Reason: He failed as the favorite in 4 of his past 6 races, with five of those attempts coming at this level. This 5-year-old runner enters the fray off of his third long layoff in his past five races. Time, among other things, is not on his side.

BETS

#4 Saint Selby (4-1). He’s the speed of the speed in this affair that’s loaded with early runners. He owns 4 wins in 6 races on fast tracks, 2 wins in 3 races at this distance, and 2 of his past 4 wins came off of layoffs.

#6 Dot’s Dollar (7-2). Here’s another old pro that just wins and wins. He owns the top BRIS speed figure and comes in fresh off an explosive win in open allowance company.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #6 Dot’s Dollar (7-2), 103
  • #4 Saint Selby (4-1), 101
  • #3 River Dog (15-1), 100
  • #5 Big Engine (5-1), 100

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 1. Maiden Optional Claimer $40,000. 5 furlongs. All Weather.

False Favorite: #4 Feline (5-2).

Reason: She’s 0 for 10, mostly at this level. She has a bad habit of breaking poorly, and she doesn’t own a closing kick strong enough to compensate for that flaw at this class level.

BETS

#2 Chloe’s Toy (9-2). As the big-time jockeys head north, Paco Lopez looks to increase his Gulfstream dominance by jumping aboard this filly as she returns to her preferred surface. There’s also a nice class drop worked in. We suspect the connections used those higher-level turf races as a way to sharpen her up for this return to a class, distance and surface she should excel at.

#7 Face the Music (5-1). Saffie Joseph is much more effective with horses making their second start (24%) than their debut (16%). This filly ran a competitive third in a 12-horse field in her debut. Expect further improvement here.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #2 Chloe’s Toy (9-2), 82
  • #3 Hot Foot Susie (7-2), 78
  • #7 Face the Music (5-1), 75

RACE 3. State-Bred Maiden Special Weights. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #4 Mama Maria (3-1).

Reason: She’s 0 for 5 at this level, with stretch fades at three different sprint distances. She’s also now 0 for 4 as the favorite.

BETS

#5 My Chutzpah (5-1). If this filly lives up to her sale price ($235,000) and workouts (:59.4 and 1:00.0 for 5 furlongs), she’ll be in the mix at the finish.

#7 Minxey (6-1). She blasted out a sizzling pair of opening quarters in a turf sprint. That was her first try off a layoff. She now moves from turf to dirt and drops back in against state breds. She should be fit and ready off of that turf prep.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.