Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, April 29, 2023


RACE 5. Claiming $25,000. 1 Mile and 1/16th. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #5 Shadow Sphinx (3-5).

Reason: Something went wrong with this 8-year-old in his stakes try last time out. Prior to that race he won an optional claimer with a $90,000 purse. Now Michael Maker is willing to lose him for about half of that race’s winning share. It’s scary to bet against such an accomplished horse, but it’d be twice as scary for the owner if he was risking a $200,000 earner for 10% of that.


#1 Healing (8-1). Healing drops to the level of his most recent win, and he does so with a collection of turf speed figures superior to those of his rivals.

#4 Original (7-2). His form declined in 2022, but he seems to have found his new level of competitiveness. Terranova wins with 22% of his runners off of long layoffs.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #1 Healing (8-1), 87
  • #1A Mount Travers (8-1), 83
  • #4 Original (7-2), 82


RACE 1. Maiden Claimer $25,000. 1 mile and 1/16th. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #1 Hope Over Fear (7-2).

Reason: She has had two class drops off of layoffs. Neither one produced much improvement. She drops off a layoff for the third time and gets an apprentice jockey who is 0 for 42 on turf.


#6 Dandelion (9-2). Two sprints followed by three solid works should have her ready for her first try around two turns. The class drop should help too.

#9 Alhaan (9-2). She was bumped at the start when dropped to this level last time. She gets a freshening and a barn switch. This daughter of Kitten’s Joy should like the added distance.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #9 Alhaan (9-2), 71
  • #5 Ready She Is (4-1), 70
  • #6 Dandelion (9-2), 69

RACE 11. Optional Claimer $62,500. 1 mile and 1/16th. Turf (Analysis for turf only)

False Favorite: #8 Olympic Runner (3-1).

Reason: He hasn’t won since 2021. This former graded stakes winner failed to beat claimers when coming off his prior layoff. Jockey Morelos wins on only 3% of his turf mounts.


#1 Yamoto (7-2). He has been working strongly since Michael Maker claimed him last time out. He enters this race with the highest BRIS speed figure and a 2-race win streak. He also gets assigned an advantageous post.

#9 California Frolic (20-1). He caught fire around this time last year. He drops out of tough graded stakes company to a more appropriate level.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #1 Yamoto (7-2), 91
  • #9 California Frolic (20-1), 89