Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, April 22, 2023

Yesterday the stated goal was to build our Kentucky Derby bankrolls. With 3 winners in 4 races, RTSS certainly put us on that path!

The winners paid $5.90, $9.60 and $13.20. And all four false favorites lost!

Back to work…


RACE 3. Nongraded Stakes. 1 Mile. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #4 Belouni (9-5).

Reason: This modestly bred European competed on a minor circuit in France. His seventh-place finish in his first US try seems to have stamped him as a minor-circuit type in this country too. Chad Brown thinks otherwise, but we’ll bet against him anyway.


#5 Inflation Nation (2-1). Twice he ran out of real estate in stakes sprints with his stalk-and-pounce tactics. He gets a little more distance here, and that should help his cause.

#6 Neural Network (5-2). Chad Brown’s other entry looks like a better deal to us. He runs well when fresh, and his style seems better suited to this grass event.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #5 Inflation Nation (2-1), 84
  • #6 Neural Network (5-2), 84
  • #2 Winter Lion (6-1), 83

RACE 5. State-Bred Allowance N1x. 6 furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #6 Agility (2-1).

Reason: His many failures at this level suggest a class drop is desperately needed.


#3 Braciole (9-2). This former low-level claimer has risen rapidly in society. And despite a decent effort at this level last time, bettors think he doesn’t belong. His BRIS speed figs and raw times say that he does.

#8 Lohengran Two (3-1). This headstrong speedster almost broke this condition two races ago with the light package of Olver Madison aboard. The connections employ that strategy again, and it seems to have a high probability of succeeding.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #3 Braciole (9-2), 92
  • #8 Lohengran Two (3-1), 92
  • #2 Two for Charging (3-1), 86


RACE 10. Optional Claimer $75,000 N1x. 5 furlongs. All Weather.

False Favorite: #6 Oh Darlin (5-2).

Reason: Fresh off a win, Ed Plesa gives him the smallest step up in class. Nice maneuvering, but his raw times suggest he’s over his head. Plesa uses Krigger, one of his regular riders, on his other entry in the race.


#2 Wide West (8-1). It’s unusual that the two horses holding the top speed figures end up as nonfavorites. This runner’s best races came at this distance on this surface. He gets off the turf to take his best shot here.

#4 Vai Bella (6-1). The top figure holder drops out of a stakes race in which he closed ground late.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #4 Vai Bella (6-1), 89
  • #2 Wide West (8-1), 87