Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Friday, September 15, 2023

After nailing two winners in four races on Friday last week, RTSS went 0 for 2 on Saturday. However, our false-favorite evaluations were perfect for the weekend. Five false favorites lost and one was scratched.

We’ll try to do a better job of capitalizing on the betting public’s mistakes this weekend.

[Note that we will not publish RTSS reports next weekend, September 22 and 23. I’ll be undergoing minor surgery on Friday.]


RACE 2. State-Bred Maiden Claimer $30,000. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #5 Mucho Mama Mia (5-2).

Reason: In 9 career starts she has never finished in the top two and has never come within 6 lengths of the winner.


#2 Strange Fruit (7-2). She almost wired a field less abysmal than this one at Saratoga. She has a better chance here in a paceless, one-turn contest at the same distance.

#8 Cause I’m Elegant (6-1). If some rival wakes up and applies early pressure to Strange Fruit, this filly might find herself within range of a late-charging upset at a big price, just like she did two races ago. It looks like she’s facing a bunch of weak-willed early types here.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #8 Cause I’m Elegant (6-1), 74
  • #2 Strange Fruit (7-2), 72

RACE 8. Winter Memories Stakes. 1 Mile. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #8 Tax Implications (7-2).

Reason: Whenever Chad Brown sends a prospect to stable at Monmouth, I consider that horse to be part of his B squad. The four consecutive failures in minor stakes that followed this filly’s New Jersey maiden romp confirm that evaluation. Despite consistently being in the thick of the battle in deep stretch, she just can’t outfinish “A-team” types in New York. We see her coming up short again.


#3 Sacred Wish (6-1). With all her experienced turf rivals stuck in the unspectacular 87-to-91 BRIS speed-figure range, this tough dirt competitor has a good shot to pull the upset. She came within a neck of defeating Grade 1 winner Wet Paint. If she’s at least that good on grass, she’ll do well here.

#10 Lady Beth (8-1). As the most lightly raced member of this group, this $390,000 daughter of Hard Spun possibly owns the most potential to improve. She chased a fast pace in the Grade 3 Soar Softly in only her second start and held well in late stretch. She returns off of a long and strong series of works for Chad Brown.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #3 Sacred Wish (6-1), 95 (dirt)
  • Most others at 90 and 89
  • #10 Lady Beth (8-1), 87


RACE 8. State-Bred Optional Claimer $20,000 N1x. 1 Mile and 1/16th. All Weather.

False Favorite: #7 Starship Wizard (3-1).

Reason: His two wins this year came in restricted $8,000 claimers. He seems over his head above that level, and way over his head here. Regular rider Leon Reyes opts to ride Awesome Crusader.


#1 Awesome Crusader (7-2). A week after being overmatched in the non-state-bred version of this class, this colt gets wheeled back and stretched out. We assume the plan is to secure the lead, and that the rail position is a plus in that regard. If he can repeat his 84 speed figure at a route, he should hold off the cavalry.

#2 Lord Eddard Stark (4-1). He successfully transitioned from sprints to a route last time out. We’ll bet he gets even better at the route game in his second attempt. Eddie Perez chooses to remain aboard here.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #1 Awesome Crusader (7-2), 84 (sprint)
  • #2 Lord Eddard Stark (4-1), 81
  • #4 Captain Anthony (6-1), 81