Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Friday, November 24, 2023

RTSS got shut out in limited action last weekend. The false-favorite identifications remained precise, but winners came from our “Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs” list rather than from our top-2 picks. We’ll try to get both cylinders firing to wrap up November.

AQUEDUCT

RACE 6. Optional Claimer $62,500 N2x. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #2 Stonewall Star (2-1).

Reason: This filly has competed only against short fields of 3-year-olds. In her most recent start, she was soundly defeated in a Grade 2 event for 3-year-olds. Even though she’s back in allowance company, her task might be even tougher today as she faces older horses for the first time.

BETS

#6 Self Isolation (8-1). This older mare has won 3 of her past 5 sprints in allowance company. Her most recent effort was a game second-place finish. She’s in a perfect spot for her talents and looks to be at the top of her form cycle.

#7 Royal Poppy (3-1). This particular 3-year-old busted through the age barrier in her most recent start. After pressing the pace, she drew away in late stretch and notched her highest BRIS speed figure. More upside is a definite possibility.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #7 Royal Poppy (3-1), 93
  • #4 Rachel’s Rocket (7-2), 91
  • #6 Self Isolation (8-1), 91

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 3. Maiden Special Weights. 5.5 Furlongs.  All Weather.

False Favorite: #4 Sickle Dance (2-1).

Reason: It’s beginning to look like the person who paid $200,000 for this runner (who is a daughter of a $5,000 sire) was overly optimistic. After making her debut late as a 3-year-old, she has delivered two nonspectacular efforts. Then she went to the sidelines for almost three months. We’re a bit less optimistic about her talents.

BETS

#3 Beach Land (3-1). Two solid career races make her a formidable presence here. Ralph Nick’s excels with horses returning from long layoffs.

#5 Applause (5-2). This daughter of Uncle Mo flashed speed in her debut. Saffie Joseph switches to his barn’s top rider Zayas.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple lightly raced horses.

RACE 5. Claiming $6,250 N2L. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #3 Tapintoyourbeer (8-5).

Reason: With a 1 for 21 career record and four consecutive losses at this level, this runner doesn’t deserve favoritism outside of a pony-ride ring.

BETS

#5 No More Debt (5-2). Popular at the claiming box, this runner has finished in the money in all five lifetime starts. We suspect the low-profile connections will result in the odds drifting upwards from the morning line.

#7 Capturethelaughter (5-1). He goes sprint to route while trying this bottom level for only the second time. Trainer Barboza switches to a rider he wins with 32% of the time.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #5 No More Debt (5-2), 76
  • #7 Capturethelaughter (5-1), 75