Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Friday, November 11, 2022

The Racetrack Super Scout (RTSS) flopped last weekend, a disappointing follow-up to the spectacular performance (4 winners in 6 races) we registered two weeks ago. We erase that bad memory with 4 key races for Friday.

We haven’t collected stats yet for the final quarter of the year, but the recently introduced “Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs” list is producing a lot of winners. In most cases we list only the top 3 speed figures. So if you disagree with one or both of the RTSS selections, give strong consideration to a horse on the speed-figure list.

(Keep in mind that we compile the BRIS speed figure list by taking the most relevant figures, based on the class, distance, surface and form cycle of each horse in the race. It’s more than simply an automated list of top figures showing in the past performances.)

You could also try a strategy of betting the two horses on the list with the best odds, or the strongest-looking play along with the best-odds horse. We’ll try to be more specific with those recommendations after we log a decent number of results.

As a reminder, we still recommend overweighting your bets on our lowest-odds selection of our 2-horse bets. The correlation between our view and tote action remains strong. We also still recommend betting very little on our selections that drift up to 8-1 or higher because we continue to see a paucity of winners when our selections receive little tote action.

Back to Aqueduct and Churchill Downs.


RACE 1. State-Bred Maiden Special Weights. 1 mile 1/16th. Turf (Analysis for turf only)

False Favorite: #9 Provision (7-2).

Reason: Four lifetime races, four second-place finishes. On turf, on dirt, with blinkers and without blinkers, this 2-year-old gelding just won’t finish the job. You could argue that he’s outperformed his $45,000 purchase price, but that won’t earn you a refund if you backed him in the past three races at 3-1 or less. And it probably won’t earn you anything this time, either.


#1 Clear Conscience (9-2). Christophe Clement hits with 20% of his turf debut horses, with a positive ROI in that category. Rosario aboard is a positive sign, too.

#12 Slapintheface (8-1). Another debut horse bred for turf. The works have been excellent, and the sire pops at about 18% with turf runners overall and 21% with horses making their first turf start.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable due to multiple debut horses.

RACE 4. State-Bred Maiden Claimer $40,000. 1 mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #3 Central Pride (9-5).

Reason: Since the blinkers came off, he’s found himself pretty much out of the race at the first call every time. Even with a class drop two races ago, he was 7th of 7 horses and then 8th of 9 horses. In 8 lifetime starts he’s never finished in the top two and never better than 2 lengths behind the second-place finisher.


#7 Bert Bert Bert (2-1). He bested Central Pride last time out while just missing victory by a head. He shows strong works since then and should be ready to fire again.

#5 Steerage (4-1). Bruce Brown, a low-percentage trainer who wins a solid 15% with horses stretching out to two turns, has been giving this runner long works since September 27. That strong sprint effort last time was likely just a prep for the money run today.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #7 Bert Bert Bert (2-1), 75
  • #2 Salty Heir (12-1), 73
  • #5 Steerage (4-1), 72

RACE 9. Claiming $16,000 N2L. 7 furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: Breadman (5-2).

Reason: An impressive string of works and a big class drop produced a distant 8th-place early run and 8th-place finish. Now trainer Terranova tries a distance switch, surface change and big class drop. Sooner or later something will work, right? We’re betting it’s gonna’ be later.


#7 Slow Decision (6-1). He has essentially been eased in 2 of his past 3 races, but his maiden win in between those efforts was impressive. Walder has a 21% success rate and a positive ROI when dropping horses 2 levels. Crash or cash? We’ll take generous odds on the highest-figure horse.

#8 Inspiration Point (4-1). He showed surprising early speed last time and posted a 7-furlong split (1:25.1) that would demolish the competition here. The winner of that race came right back to win, so there’s a good chance he will too.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #7 Slow Decision (6-1), 81 (muddy)
  • #2 B C Glory Days (10-1), 77
  • #5 Centavo (8-1), 77
  • #8 Inspiration Point (4-1), 76 or 79


RACE 2. Maiden Claimer $30,000. 6.5 furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #4 Storm Haven (5-2).

Reason: Her early fractions at higher levels aren’t any better than a few others in here, yet even those weak pace fractions led to a big stretch fade last time. That unpressured fade combined with the huge class drop for this $170,000 purchase puts her in a negative light.


#6 Shezapistol (8-1). “Sheza” in need of some class relief as well as a cutback in distance, and she gets both here. Steve Hobby gave her two strong works during her brief layoff and now gets realistic about where she belongs.

#7 Rolleston (3-1). Not only does Rolleston own the top BRIS speed figure, she also looks to be the top early speed in this race. The class drop seems appropriate, both in terms of talent and pedigree, and the most recent work signals readiness.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #7 Rolleston (3-1), 73
  • #2 Girls House (4-1), 70
  • #1 Alsanah (4-1), 69