Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Friday, January 13, 2023

It’s Friday the 13th! Let’s tear it up!


RACE 2. Claiming $25,000 N2L. 1 mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #3 Brisky Frolic (9-5).

Reason: This castaway from the Pletcher barn threw in the towel early against nonclaimers. David Jacobsen seems hesitant to work the horse longer than 3 furlongs. The short works, early fade and big class drop suggest another disappointing effort might be on tap.


#6 Synonymous (12-1). This slow-starting turfer was hustled to the lead in fast time when switched to the dirt. The pace should be more reasonable this time for a horse whose turf speed figures tower above his competitors. If he comes back close to any of his prior figures, he should win at a nice price.

#5 April Antics (5-1). He lagged behind the fast pace set by Synonymous, but he got claimed by the crafty Robert Falcone. His speed figures rank among the best in this field, and Falcone hits with 26% of his horses first race after a claim.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #6 Synonymous (12-1), 77 (turf)
  • #2 In Traffic (4-1), 74
  • #4 Run Devil (6-1), 74
  • #5 April Antics (5-1), 73

RACE 4. Allowance $50,000 Starter (N2L). 1 mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #1 Sa Foradada (2-1). After two runnerup tries at this level, with the second try being worse than the first, this mare seems to need some class relief. She’s a slow-grinding type who has never won a purse this large and probably never will.


#3 Diamond Collector (7-2). After a steadfast second-place finish in a $50,000 claimer, this expensive runner gets moved back into nonclaiming company. She owns the highest last-race speed figure. With a better break and an extra furlong, she figures to be tough to beat.

#4 My First Love (7-2). She’s our first love in this affair. Her two wins by 7+ lengths at lower levels suggested she could win against better horses. When moved up to $35,000 last time in the hands of James Ferraro, she won easily. We expect she’ll handle another move up.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #4 My First Love (7-2), 86
  • #3 Diamond Collector (7-2), 85
  • #2 Alpine Queen (3-1), 82

RACE 5. Maiden Claimer $40,000. 6 furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #7 Baby Sox (8-5).

Reason: We see the third-place finish in her debut as a glass half empty. She loosely stalked a moderate pace and lost ground throughout. Lasix gets added, but so does a move up in class. With a few rivals dropping out of MSW company for good trainers, the race might be especially tough for this level.


#1 Audit Committee (9-2). In her second start, she drops from MSW company. Thomas Morley hits 20% with horses off a brief layoff. The class drop, jockey switch and Lasix should add up to a better effort for a trainer who can get horses ready without having to race them into shape.

#5 Caly Bali (5-2). She flashed early speed against MSW company in her debut. Brad Cox wins with 38% of his horses that get Lasix for the first time and with 28% of his second-time starters.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.


RACE 2. Claiming $6,250 N2L. 1 mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #5 Raison the Glass (8-5).

Reason: With three second-place finishes in four tries at this level, this 6-year-old mare has shown us the best she can do. Even a top effort from her today is more likely to produce a loss than a win. Anything less than her best will likely lead to one of the following horses winning.


#1 Provocativa (9-2). The positive rider switch to Irad Ortiz comes with an appropriate class drop and stretchout for this lightly raced presser type whose best races have been at a mile. Trainer Rohan Crichton scores with 17% of his horses going second off a layoff, and he and Irad are 3 for 6 in the past 60 days.

#3 Kukaro (4-1). Trainer Antonio Soto wheels her back in 7 days off of a maiden win at the $12,500 level. Luis Saez retains the mount on a filly whose pedigree suggests she’ll like the extra distance.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #3 Kukaro (4-1), 71
  • #1 Provocativa (9-2), 70