Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Friday, December 23, 2022

RTSS moves closer to wrapping up its first year of operations. This weekend and next weekend will close out our 2022 stats. Let’s see if thinking and rethinking can deliver more holiday presents than wishing and hoping.


RACE 5. Optional Claimer $50,000. 1 mile 1/16th. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #6 Fish Mooney (7-2).

Reason: This filly, sharp as she has been lately, shows just one win in her past 9 starts. That came in a 6-horse field at Woodbine with a tag of $40,000 (Canadian) on her head. Although she competes well on turf, her 3 wins came on all-weather surfaces.


#4 Coconut Beach (9-2). She doesn’t own the highest BRIS speed figure in the field, but she’s one of few entrants to post figs in the mid 80s recently and consistently. Sporting 3 wins in her past 5 races, she seems like a bargain as 2nd or 3rd choice.

#8 Ocean Air (6-1). She shares the high BRIS figure (90) with Capstone Girl. With Irad Ortiz aboard and nearly $100,000 in turf earnings, she seems more likely to come back to a figure in the high 80s than Capstone Girl.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #8 Ocean Air (6-1), 90
  • #9 Capstone Girl (20-1), 90
  • #7 Love Her Lots (4-1), 86
  • #4 Coconut Beach (9-2), 85

RACE 8. State-Bred Optional Claimer $20,000. 5 furlongs. All Weather.

False Favorite: #8 Exchange Day (3-1).

Reason: He’s 0 for 7 in these state-bred optional claimers. Most of those losses came at 5.5 furlongs, where his slowish starts left him too much digging to do late and his talent level left him with not enough shovel. The cut back to 5 furlongs won’t help. Local journeyman Krigger will need to outride the big-money jockeys invading GP this week, as well as find this runner’s missing gear. Horse and rider look overmatched.


#2 Heals the Soul (5-1). He posted consecutive figs of 92 before flaming out in his most recent start. If you’re willing to assume that poor effort was an aberration, you’ll get generous odds on the high-figure horse in this race. His one and only turf try produced a dominating win, and trainer Sweezey hits at 18% with horses switching from AW to turf.

#6 Big Daddy Dave (6-1). He encountered Big Trouble when coming off a layoff. But that race was just to shake the rust off. Trainer Maragh, who hits at 26% with horses second run off a layoff, gets serious now and switches to Luis Saez from 5% Shaun Bridgmohan. Big Daddy owns wins at this level and higher and might be set to add to his trophy collection at a nice price.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #2 Heals the Soul (5-1), 92
  • #6 Big Daddy Dave (6-1), 91
  • #9 Adios Gary (4-1), 89


RACE 3. Maiden Claimer $15,000. 6 furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #6 Electric Sense (4-5).

Reason: Here’s how we view his short career: Something bad happened to this $300,000 horse in his debut or just after it. Brad Cox shipped him to Indy looking for a quick score vs. weaker MSWs. The horse came up a length short, and the problem got worse, as evidenced by his declining form and total noneffort when dropped into claimers. Electric Sense might hold together well enough to win on this enormous class drop (Cox succeeds over 30% with these types), but the allure here is the opportunity to bet against a horse with huge issues while the crowd bets him down to 3-5 or so.


#4 My Lady Luna (9-2). Of the 3 horses in this race that ran here on December 3, she showed the best early speed and late “kick.” If the favorite is False, that pits her ahead of at leastv3 rivals in this 7-horse field.

#7 You Have No Idea (4-1). Trainer Austin Gustafson has a win and a third-place finish with his Delta shippers. This runner competes well almost every time and catches a sad-sack field.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.

RACE 9. State-Bred Claiming $5,000 N3L. 6 furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #3 Iron Banner (7-2).

Reason: This late-running filly shows just one win in her past 10 races. That victory came on the turf and is surrounded by noncompetitive efforts. Lately she’s been racing over her head in allowance company, so a drop to her prior winning level of $12,000 would make sense. Instead she plunges to the bottom of the bottom of the bottom off of one of the worst races of her career.


#1 Allstar Magic (4-1). This early speedster draws the rail and figures to improve in her 2nd try at two turns, after a year of sprints.

#5 Crafty Princess (4-1). The most recent race set up perfectly for her, and she missed by just a head after a persistent late effort. She owns fewer failures at this level than most of her rivals, and the best last-race speed figure.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #5 Crafty Princess (4-1), 63
  • #7 Kaitlyn’s Court (6-1), 63
  • #8 Lake Runner (12-1), 62
  • #1 Allstar Magic (4-1), 61