Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Friday, December 15, 2023

RTSS hit 4 winners in the 6 races covered last weekend! Even the pair of losses weren’t too bad, with our 9-1 selection finishing second in one race and our two picks in the other loss ending up second and third.

We’ll go back to Aqueduct and the Fair Grounds for our Friday action this week.

AQUEDUCT

RACE 2. Starter Allowance $50,000. 1 Mile and 1/8th. Dirt.

False Favorite: #1 Strapped (5-2).

Reason: The only win for this runner came in a maiden claimer that was taken off the turf. Outside of beating turf horses competing on dirt, he has never come within four lengths of winning.

BETS

#4 Anthracite (6-1). He’s one of only two contenders with more than one win. As a son of Arrogate,  he should love the stretch to 9 furlongs. Pedigree and recent performance are important factors for which he claims superiority.

#8 Masterwork (4-1). The most lightly raced entrant owns the highest recent speed figure. This runner enters off of a sharp race less than two weeks ago. He pressed a red-hot pace last time out and then held well for third. He might prove to be the speed of the race, with a pedigree that can handle the extra distance.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #3 Stjames (3-1), 86
  • #8 Masterwork (4-1), 86
  • #4 Anthracite (6-1), 85

RACE 5. Claiming $12,500. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #8 Hammerin Aamer (9-5).

Reason: This 9-year-old gelding shows three losses at odds below 2-1 in his five races since being claimed by Robert Falcone. Falcone was forced to lay this runner off immediately after claiming him for $20,000, and then he returned this gelding to live action at nearly half of the purchase price. The negative pattern has produced five disappointments. We’ll bet we see number six here.

BETS

#4 Centavo (8-1). He posted speed figures of 84 or higher five times in a six-race span before going sour. If the vacation has put some pep back in his step, he has a good shot at winning at a nice price.

#5 Blake B (7-2). He defeated today’s morning-line favorite last time out. With that feather in his hat and the highest recent speed figure to boot, he looks like the horse to beat.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #5 Blake B (7-2), 85
  • #4 Centavo (8-1), 84
  • #7 Goldini (4-1), 84

FAIR GROUNDS

RACE 1. State-Bred Allowance N1x. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #5 Two B (3-1).

Reason: This runner shows 9 stretch fades in his past 10 races. That’s not a good look for a horse stepping up into a competitive allowance race. His only win came at a much lower level, and his next win probably also will.

BETS

#3 Angelic Knight (7-2). He blasted state-bred MSW runners last time out. Keith Desormeaux has kicked off the meet with four winners in 10 starts, and his horse looks well spotted here.

#7 Blackteca (4-1). He holds the fastest early-pace figures and enters off a win over Courtman. He has a chance to run all rivals off their feet again and to do so at decent odds.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #7 Blackteca (4-1), 81
  • #3 Angelic Knight (7-2), 80
  • #4 Courtman (4-1), 80