Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Friday, April 21, 2023

Our string of days with about 50% winners ended last Saturday. The day began on a good note, with a 5-1 winner. But RTSS was 0 for 3 from there.

We’ll try to build your Kentucky Derby bankrolls over the next two weekends. We begin with Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park on Friday.


RACE 6. State-Bred Maiden Special Weights. 1 Mile. Dirt.

False Favorite: #8 Refuah (5-2).

Reason: This 0 for 12 gelding failed three consecutive times as the favorite,  all at this level and distance. We’ll bet he needs a class drop before he finds his way to the winner’s circle.


#3 I’m Just (9-2). His 7-furlong debut was likely just a warmup for this stretchout. His series of 5-furlong works at Payson Park before his debut combined with long, strong Belmont works should have him very fit.

#4 Rule Breaker (3-1). This million-dollar NY-bred colt made a decent debut in MSW company at FG. He shortens from two turns to one for Brad Cox and probably faces an easier bunch here.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.

RACE 9. Maiden Claimer $40,000. 6 furlongs. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #6 Old Point (3-1).

Reason: This former Pletcher runner never touched the sod under Pletcher’s care before Todd gave him away for $20,000. It seems unlikely Linda Rice, a 5% trainer with horses trying turf for the first time, discovered some hidden talent that Pletcher missed. This slow-starting gelding failed to circle the field in $20,000 claimers. He probably won’t do it at the $40,000 level.


#2 Don’t Let Me Down (7-2). He nearly won at this level on dirt, and both guys to train him seem to think he prefers a surface other than dirt. The return to turf along with the slight class drop should produce a much-improved effort.

#4 Brass Monkey (8-1). For decades Robert Klesaris has done his best work with horses he claimed last time out. He finds a soft spot for the class raise off the claim.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.


RACE 2. Claiming $20,000 N2L/3yo. 1 Mile. Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #8 Andie One (3-1).

Reason: In four tries at this level she never finished better than third and never finished closer than two lengths from the winner. Her most recent race was her worst of the year. Now she’s stuck in an outside post with a 4% turf jockey on her back.


#3 Zisisit (4-1). She takes a needed drop in class after some even efforts against better horses. A return to turf might also help. She draws Reyes away from Sister Nell.

#6 Musical Romance (6-1). She returns to her preferred surface after two game, pace-prompting efforts on polytrack at higher levels. The class drop and surface switch should produce a much-improved effort.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #1 Sister Nell (7-2), 83
  • #3 Zisisit (4-1), 82

RACE 6. Maiden Special Weights. 5 furlongs.  Turf (Analysis for turf only).

False Favorite: #7 Awesome Crusader (3-1).

Reason: This 0 for 19 runner returns to the turf after 7 races on the all-weather surface. But surface doesn’t seem to matter. This colt eats up Win tickets like other horses eat hay.


#3 Point Liam (6-1). This recently gelded runner returns with sharp works on his rap sheet. He showed lots of early speed as his career began, and it looks like he might be ready to show that talent again.

#6 Yeager (9-2). His debut at 7-5 showed us he can run. In that race he dueled early before fading. He returns from a long layoff off a steady string of works and gets Paco Lopez and blinkers to aid his cause.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.