RTSS picks were on fire last weekend!
After grabbing a pair of 5-1 winners in three races on Friday, we published a perfect evaluation of the favorites in the three Kentucky Derby prep races:
- In the Wood Memorial, we identified the slow-moving Hit Show as a false favorite, and he failed to separate himself from a 2-race maiden and a 59-1 underachiever.
- In the Blue Grass we recommended betting Tapit Trice at any odds above even money. We got 8-5 for his winning effort.
- And in the Santa Anita Derby we endorsed Practical Move as a legit favorite. Our recommended bet was an exacta box with Mandarin Hero, the 8-1 shipper from Japan. (Our other exacta runner Geaux Rocket Ride was scratched.) We nailed that exacta, as those two picks finished noses apart.
Let’s cash some more!
GULFSTREAM PARK
RACE 3. State-Bred Optional Claimer $50,000 N1x. 1 mile 70 yards. All Weather.
False Favorite: #6 Hihellohowareyou (3-1).
Reason: Her pedigree slants heavily toward sprints. That genetic limitation showed last time out, when Luis Saez couldn’t convert a clear lead on a slow pace into a victory. It also shows in her BRIS speed figures, with her best figure by far earned in a sprint. We’ll bet she fades late in the race again.
BETS
#1 Kitty Quick (9-2). She was claimed off of her turf win. Jose D’Angelo spent $75,000 to get her, and he wins 25% first off the claim. She has a win around two turns and a win above this level.
#4 Zosterop (6-1). Since getting Lasix she has run two good races in fast times for this level.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
- #1 Kitty Quick (9-2), 86 (sprint)
- #4 Zosterop (6-1), 77
- #7 Luck in the Dusk (4-1), 73
RACE 4. Maiden Special Weights. 5 Furlongs. Turf (Analysis for turf only)
False Favorite: #1 Fight (3-1).
Reason: He takes a huge step up in class after repeatedly failing to win against weaker horses.
BETS
#4 Point Liam (5-1). It looks like he had some physical issues that didn’t get resolved last time he came back off a layoff. They shorten the distance and keep the faith by bringing him back at this level. If he comes back to that 79 figure from a few races ago, he’s the winner.
#6 Peach Nectar (4-1). This lightly raced Saffie Joseph trainee cuts back in distance after failing to last for two turns on the turf.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
- #5 Mr. American (7-2), 77
- #4 Point Liam (5-1), 72
- #6 Peach Nectar (4-1) 68
RACE 8. Claiming $20,000 N2L. 1 mile. Turf (Analysis for turf only)
False Favorite: #5 Andie One (3-1).
Reason: She competed four times at this level without ever coming close to winning.
BETS
#2 Sister Nell (7-2). She owns the best BRIS speed figure by a significant margin. Jimenez seems to have plucked a good runner out of the Pletcher barn.
#4 Lead Performer (15-1). The BRIS speed figure and winning time from two races back match up well with this field. She’ll likely take a clear lead, chased mostly by horses no faster than her.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
- #2 Sister Nell (7-2), 83
- #1 Shea D Secret (6-1), 76
- #4 Lead Performer (15-1), 76
KEENELAND
RACE 8. Optional Claimer $100,000 N3x/N2Y. 6.5 furlongs. Dirt.
False Favorite: #9 Chi Town Lady (9-5).
Reason: She raced exclusively against 3-year-olds until finishing sixth in the BC Fillies and Mares Sprint. She faces a murderer’s row of hard-knocking veterans here.
BETS
#2 Travel Column (5-2). The last time she got Lasix off a long layoff, she blasted a 101 speed figure. She has been working steadily and might be able to defeat this field even if she has lost a step from her graded stakes days.
#5 Novel Squall (6-1). She shipped in from Oaklawn last year and took a class drop out of stakes company to win by more than 9 lengths. She repeats that pattern off a pair of excellent works.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
- #2 Travel Column (5-2), 101
- #5 Novel Squall (6-1), 99
