Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Friday, April 14, 2023

RTSS picks were on fire last weekend!

After grabbing a pair of 5-1 winners in three races on Friday, we published a perfect evaluation of the favorites in the three Kentucky Derby prep races:

  • In the Wood Memorial, we identified the slow-moving Hit Show as a false favorite, and he failed to separate himself from a 2-race maiden and a 59-1 underachiever.
  • In the Blue Grass we recommended betting Tapit Trice at any odds above even money. We got 8-5 for his winning effort.
  • And in the Santa Anita Derby we endorsed Practical Move as a legit favorite. Our recommended bet was an exacta box with Mandarin Hero, the 8-1 shipper from Japan. (Our other exacta runner Geaux Rocket Ride was scratched.) We nailed that exacta, as those two picks finished noses apart.

Let’s cash some more!


RACE 3. State-Bred Optional Claimer $50,000 N1x. 1 mile 70 yards. All Weather.

False Favorite: #6 Hihellohowareyou (3-1).

Reason: Her pedigree slants heavily toward sprints. That genetic limitation showed last time out, when Luis Saez couldn’t convert a clear lead on a slow pace into a victory. It also shows in her BRIS speed figures, with her best figure by far earned in a sprint. We’ll bet she fades late in the race again.


#1 Kitty Quick (9-2). She was claimed off of her turf win. Jose D’Angelo spent $75,000 to get her, and he wins 25% first off the claim. She has a win around two turns and a win above this level.

#4 Zosterop (6-1). Since getting Lasix she has run two good races in fast times for this level.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #1 Kitty Quick (9-2), 86 (sprint)
  • #4 Zosterop (6-1), 77
  • #7 Luck in the Dusk (4-1), 73

RACE 4. Maiden Special Weights.  5 Furlongs. Turf (Analysis for turf only)

False Favorite: #1 Fight (3-1).

Reason: He takes a huge step up in class after repeatedly failing to win against weaker horses.


#4 Point Liam (5-1). It looks like he had some physical issues that didn’t get resolved last time he came back off a layoff. They shorten the distance and keep the faith by bringing him back at this level. If he comes back to that 79 figure from a few races ago, he’s the winner.

#6 Peach Nectar (4-1). This lightly raced Saffie Joseph trainee cuts back in distance after failing to last for two turns on the turf.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #5 Mr. American (7-2), 77
  • #4 Point Liam (5-1), 72
  • #6 Peach Nectar (4-1) 68

RACE 8. Claiming $20,000 N2L. 1 mile. Turf (Analysis for turf only)

False Favorite: #5 Andie One (3-1).

Reason: She competed four times at this level without ever coming close to winning.


#2 Sister Nell (7-2). She owns the best BRIS speed figure by a significant margin. Jimenez seems to have plucked a good runner out of the Pletcher barn.

#4 Lead Performer (15-1). The BRIS speed figure and winning time from two races back match up well with this field. She’ll likely take a clear lead, chased mostly by horses no faster than her.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #2 Sister Nell (7-2), 83
  • #1 Shea D Secret (6-1), 76
  • #4 Lead Performer (15-1), 76


RACE 8. Optional Claimer $100,000 N3x/N2Y. 6.5 furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #9 Chi Town Lady (9-5).

Reason: She raced exclusively against 3-year-olds until finishing sixth in the BC Fillies and Mares Sprint. She faces a murderer’s row of hard-knocking veterans here.


#2 Travel Column (5-2). The last time she got Lasix off a long layoff, she blasted a 101 speed figure. She has been working steadily and might be able to defeat this field even if she has lost a step from her graded stakes days.

#5 Novel Squall (6-1). She shipped in from Oaklawn last year and took a class drop out of stakes company to win by more than 9 lengths. She repeats that pattern off a pair of excellent works.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #2 Travel Column (5-2), 101
  • #5 Novel Squall (6-1), 99