Lazy Bettor Guides False Favorite Report, December 22, 2023

Our streak of 5 winners in 9 races came to a crashing halt on Saturday, as all 3 false favorites beat us. I believe that’s the first time in nearly two years of writing these reports that we’ve been stung like that.
Time to dust ourselves off and rebound!
RACE 5. Optional $50,000 N2x. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.
False Favorite: #5 Joke Sisi (3-1).
Reason: In 4 US optional claiming races at 3 different tracks, this Chilean star has lost ground in the stretch every time. She tries track number four, but we expect the result to be about the same: close but no Cigar.
#1 Rastani (6-1). The most lightly raced filly in the group ships in from Gulfstream Park with a speed figure within range of the more experienced runners. She climbed to this level by winning a race after being “pinballed at the start.” She looks like a real competitive sort.
#6 Charriere (4-1). She has won 2 of her past 3 races while competing in Kentucky. Entering here off a near-miss placing with the highest recent speed figure, she looks like the one to beat.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
#6 Charriere (4-1), 91
#3 Miss Arlington (7-2), 89
#1 Rastani (6-1), 88

RACE 9. State-Bred Optional Claimer $20,000 N2x. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.
False Favorite: #1 Miss Priority (7-2).
Reason: It looks like she can’t last beyond 5.5 furlongs at this level. She’ll likely need a shorter distance and more class relief before she sees the winner’s circle again.
#2 Country Lady (9-2). Trainer Grant Forster shows 30%winners with horses making their second start off a layoff. The sizzling workout on December 14 suggests readiness.
#8 Royal O’Haigen (12-1). This inconsistent runner offers a high speed figure at double-digit odds, so we’ll consider making a small wager.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
#8 Royal O’Haigen (12-1), 85
#2 Country Lady (9-2),
RACE 1. Maiden Claimer $12,500. 1 Mile 70 yards. All Weather.

False Favorite: #2 Battle of Dover (8-5).
Reason: He takes a huge class plunge after showing decent speed against better horses. The drop seems excessive, and he has weakened late in both career starts.
#3 Bachman (4-1). After flashing early speed for the first time in his career, this runner turned in a bullet work. The class drop and the rider switch to Luis Saez seal the case that this guy is ready to go.
#5 Pirate Radio (9-5). Jose D’Angelo hits at 35% when dropping horses in class right after a claim.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.