Lazy Bettor Guides False Favorite Report, December 22, 2023

Our streak of 5 winners in 9 races came to a crashing halt on Saturday, as all 3 false favorites beat us. I believe that’s the first time in nearly two years of writing these reports that we’ve been stung like that.
Time to dust ourselves off and rebound!
FAIR GROUNDS
RACE 5. Optional $50,000 N2x. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.
False Favorite: #5 Joke Sisi (3-1).
Reason: In 4 US optional claiming races at 3 different tracks, this Chilean star has lost ground in the stretch every time. She tries track number four, but we expect the result to be about the same: close but no Cigar.
BETS
#1 Rastani (6-1). The most lightly raced filly in the group ships in from Gulfstream Park with a speed figure within range of the more experienced runners. She climbed to this level by winning a race after being “pinballed at the start.” She looks like a real competitive sort.
#6 Charriere (4-1). She has won 2 of her past 3 races while competing in Kentucky. Entering here off a near-miss placing with the highest recent speed figure, she looks like the one to beat.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
#6 Charriere (4-1), 91
#3 Miss Arlington (7-2), 89
#1 Rastani (6-1), 88

RACE 9. State-Bred Optional Claimer $20,000 N2x. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.
False Favorite: #1 Miss Priority (7-2).
Reason: It looks like she can’t last beyond 5.5 furlongs at this level. She’ll likely need a shorter distance and more class relief before she sees the winner’s circle again.
BETS
#2 Country Lady (9-2). Trainer Grant Forster shows 30%winners with horses making their second start off a layoff. The sizzling workout on December 14 suggests readiness.
#8 Royal O’Haigen (12-1). This inconsistent runner offers a high speed figure at double-digit odds, so we’ll consider making a small wager.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
#8 Royal O’Haigen (12-1), 85
#2 Country Lady (9-2),
79
GULFSTREAM PARK
RACE 1. Maiden Claimer $12,500. 1 Mile 70 yards. All Weather.

False Favorite: #2 Battle of Dover (8-5).
Reason: He takes a huge class plunge after showing decent speed against better horses. The drop seems excessive, and he has weakened late in both career starts.
BETS
#3 Bachman (4-1). After flashing early speed for the first time in his career, this runner turned in a bullet work. The class drop and the rider switch to Luis Saez seal the case that this guy is ready to go.
#5 Pirate Radio (9-5). Jose D’Angelo hits at 35% when dropping horses in class right after a claim.
Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs
Not applicable because of multiple debut and lightly raced horses.