Lazy Bettor Guides Fales-Favorite Report, Saturday, July 29, 2023

RTSS picked 2 winners in 3 races on Friday! Both at Saratoga, and both paid well!

Our day started with Into the Sunrise scoring at 9-1. And in the 10th race we defeated even-money favorite Drew’s Gold, with New York Thunder getting the job done for us with a $13.00 payout.

The false favorite we found at Gulfstream cooperated by losing, but we didn’t pull in the winner there.


RACE 2. Optional Claimer $62,500 N2x. 6 Furlongs. Dirt.

False Favorite: #5 Osbourne (2-1).

Reason: This habitual grinder struggled to clear N1x conditions and now struggles in N2x. We believe allowance company at Saratoga is a class raise he’s unlikely to handle.


#3 Joey Freshwater (6-1). Linda Rice scratched him from the Grade 2 Amsterdam yesterday. He fits better here as he gets his first allowance try after a long series of stakes races. The trainer/jockey combo is smoking hot, the placement makes perfect sense and the odds should be decent.

#4 Bold Journey (5-2). If he can run back to his 109 figure, he’ll win easily. This is his first allowance try on dirt since being overmatched in the Grade 1 Carter. The July workouts have been superb and the return to dirt should help his cause.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #4 Bold Journey (5-2), 109
  • #3 Joey Freshwater (6-1), 99
  • #1 My Harbors Dream (8-1), 95

RACE 10. Grade 2 Jim Dandy. 1 Mile and 1/8th. Dirt.

LEGIT Favorite: #2 Forte (7-5).

Reason: Readers and viewers of Lazy Bettor Guides know we’re not nearly as impressed with Forte as most other fans and analysts. However, he catches a small and non-threatening group here. We rate Arcangelo as the best 3-year-old this year, and Forte’s rally in the Belmont to grab place honors to him is probably all the proof you need that he’ll be the strongest stretch runner in the Jim Dandy. There’s not much more we have to add, other than he should pad his resume on Saturday.




RACE 10. Claiming $10,000. 1 Mile and 70 Yards. All Weather.

False Favorite: #3 Watch the Music (5-2).

Reason: We tread carefully around morning-line favorites that finished second last time out. But the pattern for this place finisher is negative. After Bobby Dibona claimed him for $16,000, the horse immediately needed to be laid off. After sitting on the sidelines, this two-time winner at the $12,500 level got entered for $10,000…and lost! Then he lost again at this level. In both defeats, he lost ground in the stretch. It seems something bad happened either just before or just after the claim. The prior winning form hasn’t come back.


#1 War Cross (8-1). The June 17 race he competed in produced all the high BRIS figures in this field. However, only the winner of that race came back to win again. So are those figures legit? We’ll assume they are. War Cross gets a positive rider switch and favorable post to go with his high number. We also like the 8-1 odds.

#7 Winning Factor (3-1) produced the best effort of all the June 17 runnerups. Jose D’Angelo switching to Edwin Gonzalez is hugely positive too.

Top Relevant BRIS Speed Figs

  • #1 War Cross (8-1), 89
  • #7 Winning Factor (3-1), 89
  • #6 Dream of a Day (15-1), 88