Roger LeBlanc for LazyBettorUSA.com
Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Derby Futures Pool #2 closed on January 23, 2022. That’s quite early for bettors to accurately predict Derby success in May. Futures Pool #3 runs this weekend (February 11-13). That still leaves a wagering eternity until the race is run, effectively reducing even the best predictions of a specific winner to well-dressed guesswork.
A better way to view Churchill’s futures pool series is to consider it an opportunity to lock in generous odds on the correct running style.
Using the data and examples in The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby you can sniff out underappreciated horses and invest in several prospects that fit the Guide’s parameters. Think of it as forming an ETF or mutual fund of Derby candidates displaying the most important qualities.
The key word in all of this is “underappreciated.” That means you must insist on long odds of, say, 40-1 or higher to justify the risk that some of your picks might not qualify for the Derby in May and the reality that only one horse in your fund can win.
In the free LazyBettorUSA January newsletter we offered positive comments about the following eight horses in Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 2:
- Chasing Time (17-1)
- Classic Causeway (51-1)
- Commandperformance (41-1)
- Emmanuel (17-1)
- Epicenter (24-1)
- Major General (41-1)
- Simplification (43-1)
- Slow Down Andy (20-1)
Here’s the good news for subscribers who invested in one or more of our top choices: all these horses remain in Kentucky Derby Futures Pool #3 this weekend. A few (Emmanuel, Epicenter, Simplification) finished first or second since pool #2 was launched.
Even better, several horses we viewed negatively underperformed expectations in the past few weeks: Mo Donegal (24-1), Giant Game (28-1), Pappacap (24-1), Tiz the Bomb (10-1) and Trafalgar (77-1). Note that four of them closed at odds well below 40-1. So the Lazy Bettor approach already steered its adherents clear of overvalued contenders.
Kentucky Derby prep races this weekend will determine further which horses keep chasing the roses and which trainers and owner will need to lower expectations. To benefit from the time-tested Lazy Bettor approach in Pool #3 and throughout this Derby prep season, subscribe to our Racetrack Super Scout (starting March 1) and keep checking our website for unique, insightful Kentucky Derby content.