We launched the “Instant Value Handicapping” channel on YouTube to prove out methods detailed in The Punter’s Tale (A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits). The Punter’s Tale describes how to identify false favorites and select horses to bet against them. With the public betting an inordinate amount of money on a horse likely to lose, value is instantly created on other contenders.
We expect to see a false-favorite failure rate of 75% or higher. By making two-horse bets (or one Win/Place bet as described in the following steps) against these false favorites, we’re shooting for a win rate of 50% or higher.
Living up to our name, LazyBettorUSA, we’ve kept the wagering strategy simple for the “Instant Value Handicapping” video series:
- Examine morning-line favorites at a particular track.
- Bet only on races containing a false favorite.
- Bet two horses, using a hypothetical $100 bankroll for each race. Dutch the bets in $10 increments to get nearly the same return regardless of which horse wins.
- Assuming a log-term 50% win rate, bet two horses as long as both offer odds of 8-5 or higher. In cases where odds on one alternative horse drop below 8-5, consider that horse to be a legitimate favorite and bet only on that selection. Use $40 Win/$60 Place as your standard wager to assure a 50% or higher hit rate.
- If the morning-line false favorite is scratched, continue with your bet. If you haven’t selected the new favorite as one of your alternatives, you can assume that horse is a false favorite also. If one of your selections ends up as the favorite, use the odds cutoffs mentioned in the prior bullet to determine how to bet.
- For the “Strongest Favorite of the Day” Place bet strategy, assume a $100 Place bet.
- Cancel all bets for turf races if the race is taken off the turf.
All results posted below use these assumptions.
We focused on Gulfstream Park in weeks 1 through 7. It proved to be rough sledding for us, as we ended with a negative 28% ROI (a loss of $398 on $1,400 in wagers). On the positive side, we hit our target of identifying false favorites at better than a 75% rate, coming in at 78.5% (with 11 of 14 false favorites losing).
Bet-by-Bet Results for Gulfstream Park
WEEK 7. SATURDAY, MARCH 6, 2021.
Four false favs identified. Three ended up losing. Zero winners selected against them.
RACE 1
False morning-line favorite: #1 Caramel Swirl, 5-2
Alternatives: #4 Scarlett Lace (off at 17-1), #6 Nevisian Sunrise (off at 5-2)
Bet Strategy: $10 Win #4 Scarlett Lace, $90 Win #6 Nevisian Sunrise
Result: #3 Stunning Princess $8.80 win/$4.60 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 5
False morning-line favorite: #2 Lavi, 5-2
Alternatives: #3 Subsidiary (off at 3-1), #5 Dana Grace (off at 4-1)
Bet Strategy: $50 Win #3 Subsidiary, $50 Win #5 Dana Grace
Result: #2 Lavi $4.80 win/$2.80 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 6
False morning-line favorite: #11 Pleasecallmeback, 3-1
Alternatives: #4 Emoji Guy (off at 6-1), #10 Seize the Hay (off at 7-1)
Bet Strategy: $50 Win #4 Emoji Guy, $50 Win #10 Seize the Hay
Result: #2 Montauk Summer $8.60 win/$4.60 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 8
False morning-line favorite: #4 Antigone, 7-5
Alternatives: #3 Callmesenorita (off at 14-1), #6 Lady Fiorella (off at 15-1)
Bet Strategy: $50 Win #3 Callmesenorita, $50 Win #6 Lady Fiorella
Result: #2 Tokyo $5.60 win/$3.80 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
Win/Loss for Week 7: -$400 (on $400 in wagers)
WEEK 6. SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2021.
Two false favs identified. Both false favorites lost. One of our selections won.
RACE 4
False morning-line favorite: #3 Tide of the Sea, 5-2
Alternatives: #7 Aquaphobia (off at 7-1), #8 Admission Office (off at 3-1)
Bet Strategy: $40 Win #7 Aquaphobia /$60 Win #8 Admission Office
Result: #6 Phantom Currency $15.60 win/$7.20 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 10
False morning-line favorite: #2 Opry, 5-2
Alternatives: #4 Sayaaf (off at 5-1), #11 First Premio (off at 7-1)
Bet Strategy: $60 Win #4 Sayaaf/$40 Win #11 First Premio
Result: #4 Sayaaf $13.40 win/$7.60 place
Return: $402 ($402 win/$0 place). +$302
Win/Loss for Week 6: +$202 (on $200 in wagers)
WEEK 5. SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2021.
One false fav identified. False favorite lost. Zero winners selected.
RACE 5
False morning-line favorite: #6 Combination, 6-5
Alternatives: #3 Young Raymond (off at 17-1), #8 Starship Apollo (off at 10-1)
Bet Strategy: $40 Win on #3 Young Raymond, $60 Win on #8 Starship Apollo
Result: #2 Northern $9.80 win/$4.00 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
Win/Loss for Week 5: -$100 (on $100 in wagers)
WEEK 4. SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 2021.
Two false favs identified. Both false favorites lost. Zero winners selected against them in two races.
RACE 1
False morning-line favorite: #5 Pharoah’s Gold, 5-2
Alternatives: #3 Greenwood Drive (11-1), #6 Pugin (off at 5-2)
Bet Strategy: $30 Win on #3 Greenwood Drive, $70 Win on #6 Pugin
Result: #7 Onemoretimearound $10.40 win/$5.40 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 9
False morning-line favorite: #2 Hoponthebusgus, 5-2
Alternatives: #4 Jost Saying (off at 9-1), #6 Towa (off at 8-1)
Bet Strategy: $50 Win on #4 Jost Saying, $50 Win #6 Towa
Result: #12 Omnia $12.60 win/$8.00 place (Towa ran second at 8-1)
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
Win/Loss for Week 4: -$200 (on $200 in wagers)
WEEK 3. SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 2021.
One false fav identified, but race taken off turf. NO BETS.
RACE 6
False morning-line favorite: #3 La Signare, 7-5
Alternatives: #2 Great Island , #4 Logic N Reason
Bet Strategy: NO BETS. RACE TAKEN OFF TURF
Result: #2 Great Island $2.60 win/$2.20 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). +$0
Win/Loss for Week 3: $0 (on $0 in wagers)
WEEK 2. SATURDAY, JANUARY 30, 2021.
Three false favs identified. One of 3 false favorites lost. One winner selected against them in three races.
RACE 1
False morning-line favorite: #10 Wicksters Dream, 4-1
Alternatives: #7 Weekend Dreamer (off at 9-1), #8 Unprecedented (11-1)
Bet Strategy: $50 Win on #2 Zabava, $50 Win on #8 Strollin the Bayou
Result: #7 Weekend Dreamer $20.20 win/$11.00 place
Return: $505 ($505 win/$0 place). +$405
RACE 5
False morning-line favorite: #2 Man of Vision, 7-2
Alternatives: #4 Kalu (off at 4-1), #6 Dr Harlan (off at 19-1)
Bet Strategy: $80 Win on #4 Kalu, $20 Win on #6 Dr Harlan
Result: #2 Man of Vison $6.00 win/$3.80 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 11
False morning-line favorite: #7 Greatest Honour, 5-2
Alternatives: #5 Tarantino (off at 26-1), #6 Prime Factor (6-5)
Bet Strategy: $40 Win/$60 Place on #6 Prime Factor (2-horse dutch becomes 1-horse Win/Place bet at odds under 8-5.)
Result: #7 Greatest Honour $7.60 win/$4.40 place (Tarantino ran second at 26-1)
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
Win/Loss for Week 2: +$205 (on $300 in wagers)
WEEK 1. SATURDAY, JANUARY 23, 2021.
Two false favs identified. Both false favorites lost. Zero winners selected against them in two races.
RACE 3
False morning-line favorite: #11 Junkanoo, 7-2
Alternatives: #5 Juulstone (off at 7-1), #9 Homeland (7-1)
Bet Strategy: $50 Win on #5 Juulstone, $50 Win on #9 Homeland
Result: #12 Microsecond $19.20 win/$9.40 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 9
False morning-line favorite: #2 Cinnabunny, 3-1
Alternatives: #5 Piedi Bianchi (off at 10-1), #7 Sally’s Curlin (9-2)
Bet Strategy: $30 Win on #5 Piedi Bianchi, $70 Win on #7 Sally’s Curlin
Result: #6 Pacific Gale $34.20 win/$10.00 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
Win/Loss for Week 1: -$200 (on $200 in wagers)
