OVERALL GOALS AND WAGERING STRATEGY
We launched the “Instant Value Handicapping” channel on YouTube to prove out methods detailed in The Punter’s Tale (A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits). Following up on the success of that video series, we offer these False-Favorite Reports.
The Punter’s Tale explains how to identify false favorites and select horses to bet against them. With the public betting an inordinate amount of money on a horse likely to lose, value is instantly created on other contenders. We expect to see false favorites we identify lose at a rate of 75% or higher. By making two-horse bets (or one Place bet as explained below) against these false favorites, we’re shooting for a win rate of 50% or higher.
Living up to our name, LazyBettorUSA, we’ve kept the wagering strategy simple:
- Examine morning-line favorites at a particular track.
- Bet only on races containing a false favorite.
- Bet two horses. For illustration purposes in the video series, we use a hypothetical $100 bankroll for each race and dutch the bets in $10 increments to get nearly the same return regardless of which horse wins.
- Assuming a long-term 50% win rate, accept odds of 8-5 or higher. If the odds on one horse drop below 8-5, treat that horse as a legitimate favorite and don’t bet against it. Instead, bet only on that horse, using $40Win/$60 Place as your standard wager to assure a 50% or higher hit rate.
- If the morning-line false favorite is scratched and you haven’t selected the new favorite as one of your alternatives, assume that horse is a false favorite and continue with your wager as described in the steps above.
- For the “Strongest Favorite of the Day” Place bet strategy, wager $100 to Place on the strongest favorite on the card.
- Cancel all bets for turf races if the race is taken off the turf.
RESULTS FOR WEEKS 8 THROUGH 11
We looked at Keeneland in Week 11 (on April 3) and The Fairgrounds in Weeks 8 through 10. Our methods failed in their short try at Keeneland, where false favorites beat us in the two races we bet against them.
The Fairgrounds were fertile grounds, though. We identified 6 false favorites over three Saturdays, and all 6 cooperated by losing. We also racked up 66% winners (4 for 6) and a positive ROI.
Overall totals for the two tracks used in weeks 8 through 11 show 50% winners (4 for 8, counting the winning Place bet in Week 10) and an ROI of negative .7% ($800 wagered; $739 returned). The excellent results at the Fairgrounds in weeks 8 through10 fell just short of overcoming the bad day at Keeneland.
Going backward from Week 11 to Week 8, we’ve listed the bet-by-bet results for each track.
Bet-by-Bet Results for Keeneland
WEEK 11. SATURDAY, APRIL 3, 2021.
Two false favs identified. Both ended up beating us. Zero winners selected against them.
RACE 7
False morning-line favorite: #1 Flagstaff
Alternatives: #2 Hidden Scroll (off at 2-1), #7 Hog Creek Hustle (off at 4-1)
Bet Strategy: $60 Win #1 Egauxtism, $40 Win #7 Hog Creek Hustle
Result: #1 Flagstaff $5.80 win/$3.40 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 8
False morning-line favorite: #13 Bound For Nowhere
Alternatives: #2 Imprimis (off at 5-2), #5 Turned Aside (off at 13-1)
Bet Strategy: $80 Win #2 Imprimis, $20 Win #5 Turned Aside
Result: #13 Bound For Nowhere $6.60 win/$3.60 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
Win/Loss for Week 11: -$200 (on $200 in wagers)
Bet-by-Bet Results for The Fairgrounds
WEEK 10. SATURDAY, MARCH 27, 2021.
One false fav identified. False favorite lost. One of our selections ran second.
RACE 11
False morning-line favorite: #8 Underpressure, 5-2
Alternatives: #7 Jus Lively (off at 3-2), #9 Relentless Dancer (off at 3-1)
Bet Strategy: $100 Place on #7 Jus Lively (2-horse dutch becomes 1-horse Place bet at odds under 8-5.)
Result: Jus Lively $0 win/$3.00 place (Winner #5 Pound for Pound $16.40)
Return: $150 ($0 win/$150 place). +$50
Win/Loss for Week 10: +$50 (on $100 in wagers)
WEEK 9. SATURDAY, MARCH 20, 2021.
Two false favs identified. Both went down to defeat. Two winners selected against them.
RACE 4
False morning-line favorite: #1 Elle M’a Souri, 3-1
Alternatives: #2 Peter’s Kitten (off at 3-1), #4 Three Flamingos (off at 7-2)
Bet Strategy: $50 Win on #2 Peter’s Kitten, $50 Win on #4 Three Flamingos
Result: #4 Three Flamingos $9.40 win/$4.60 place
Return: $235 ($235 win/$0 place). +$135
RACE 13
False morning-line favorite: #6 Clairiere, 2-1
Alternatives: #4 Travel Column (off at 2-1), #5 Obligatory (off at 7-2)
Bet Strategy: $60 Win on #4 Travel Column, $40 Win on #5 Obligatory
Result: #4 Travel Column $6.20 win/$3.20 place
Return: $186 ($186 win/$0 place). +86
Win/Loss for Week 9: +$221 (on $200 in wagers)
WEEK 8. SATURDAY, MARCH 13, 2021.
Three false favs identified (excluding race taken off turf). Both false favorites lost. One winner selected against them in two races.
RACE 3
False morning-line favorite: #4 Sensible Myth, 3-1
Alternatives: #2 Zabava (off at 2-1), #8 Strollin the Bayou (3-1)
Bet Strategy: $60 Win on #2 Zabava, $40 Win on #8 Strollin the Bayou
Result: #8 Strollin the Bayou $8.40 win/$4.60 place
Return: $168 ($168 win/$0 place). +$68
RACE 5
False morning-line favorite: #1 Play Unified, 5-2
Alternatives: #3 Sunshine Deelite (off at 6-1), #4 Dr Liz (10-1)
Bet Strategy: $60 Win on #3 Sunshine Deelite, $40 Win #4 Dr Liz
Result: #7 Galaxy Thirtysix wins
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 6
False morning-line favorite: #8 Break at Dawn, 7-2
Alternatives: #2 Microcap (off at 3-1), #6 Powder River (off at 6-5)
Bet Strategy: $100 Place #6 Powder River (2-horse dutch becomes 1-horse Place bet at odds under 8-5.)
Result: Microcap wins, $8.00 win/$4.80 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
Win/Loss for Week 8: -$132 (on $300 in wagers)
