IVH Video Series: Evangeline Downs Results (Weeks 12-15)

Our “Instant Value Handicapping” video series on YouTube was launched to prove out methods detailed in The Punter’s Tale (A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits). The book focuses on identifying false favorites.

To measure the potential rewards for accurately evaluating favorites, the book also contains a section on choosing alternative bets in those false-favorite races.

Evangeline Downs has been the featured track for weeks 12 through 15. The track has proven to be a gracious host, as we racked up 60% winners (6 for 10) and a ROI of 60.9% ($1,640 returned for $1,000 in wagers, as detailed below).

Also, 8 of 10 false favorites we identified went down to defeat.

Bet-by-Bet Results for Evangeline Downs

WEEK 15. WEDNESDAY, JUNE 2, 2021.

Three false favs identified. Two winners selected against them.

RACE 1

False morning-line favorite: Greeley’s Banker

Alternatives: #4 Navy Times (off at 6-5), #6 Bayou Bode (off at 7-1)

Bet Strategy: $40 Win/$60 Place #4 Navy Times (2-horse dutch becomes 1 horse Win/Place bet at odds under 8-5.)

Result: Navy Times $4.40 win/$2.40 place

Return: $160 ($88 win/$72 place). +$60

RACE 5

False morning-line favorite: Sunday’s Gift

Alternatives: #3 Achancetowin (off at 7-5), #7 Who Dat Grey (off at 5-1)

Bet Strategy: $40 Win/$60 Place on #3 Achancetowin (2-horse dutch becomes 1 horse Win/Place bet at odds under 8-5.)

Result: Achancetowin finished 4th

Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100

RACE 8

False morning-line favorite: Homeland Messa

Alternatives: #7 Tiz The Dude (off at 2-1), #8 Half a Bite (off at 9-1)

Bet Strategy: $80 Win on #7 Tiz The Dude, $20 Win on #8 Half a Bite

Result: Tiz The Dude $6.40 win/$4.60 place

Return: $256 ($256 win/$0 place). +$156

Profit for Week 14: +$116 (on $300 in wagers)

WEEK 14. WEDNESDAY, May 26, 2021.

Three false favs identified. Two winners selected against them.

RACE 1

False morning-line favorite: Typhoon Zing

Alternatives: #4 Ellie D Cajun (off at 14-1), #8 Wholeshackshimmies (off at 2-1)

Bet Strategy: $80 Win on #8 Wholeshackshimmies, $20 Win on #4 Ellie D Cajun

Result: #8 Wholeshackshimmies $6.20 win/$2.40 place

Return: $248 ($248 win/$0 place). +$148

RACE 2

False morning-line favorite: #3 Guitarzan

Alternatives: #2 Binding (off at 2-1), #8 Zipzaptime (off at 6-1)

Bet Strategy: $70 Win on #2 Binding, $30 Win on #8 Freedom Fighter

Result: #2 Binding $6.00 win/$3.40 place

Return: $210 ($210 win/$0 place). +110

RACE 5

False morning-line favorite: #3 Antarctic

Alternatives: #7 Much Class (off at 6-1), #8 Freedom Factor (off at 9-5)

Bet Strategy: $30 Win on #7 Much Class, $70 Win on #8 Freedom Fighter

Result: #3 Antarctic wins

Return: $0 ($0 win/place). -$100

Profit for Week 13: +$158 (on $300 in wagers)

WEEK 13. WEDNESDAY, May 19, 2021.

Two false favs identified (excluding race taken off turf). One winner selected against them in two races.

RACE 3

False morning-line favorite: #4 Tin Delay

Alternatives: #2 Ambassador House (off at 5-1), #9 Dale’s Lil Bro (12-1)

Bet Strategy: $70 Win on #2 Ambassador House, $30 Win on

Result: #2 Ambassador House $13.20 win/$5.00 place

Return: $462 ($462 win/$0 place). +$362

RACE 5

False morning-line favorite: #4 Seven Come Eleven

Alternatives: #2A Custom for Aly/2B D’lady Fired Up (off at 3-1), #6 Here Comes Lovie (5-1)

Bet Strategy: $60 Win on 2A/2B, $40 Win #6 Here Comes Lovie

Result: #1 Anotherinthefire wins

Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100

RACE 7

False morning-line favorite: #7 Antarctic

Alternatives: No bets. Race Taken off turf

Bet Strategy: $0 Win

Result: N/A

Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). $0

Profit for Week 12: +$262 (on $200 in wagers)

WEEK 12. WEDNESDAY, May 12, 2021.

Two false favs identified. One winner selected against them.

RACE 2

False morning-line favorite: #4 Traelee

Alternatives: #3 Optimistic (off at 5-2), #5 Royal Galaxy (off at 15-1)

Bet Strategy: $80 Win on #3 Optimistic, $20 Win on #5 Royal Galaxy

Result: #3 Optimistic $7.60 win/$3.40 place

Return: $304 ($304 win/$0 place). +$204

RACE 4

False morning-line favorite: #1 Matt’s Pride

Alternatives: #5 Heather Divine (off at 5-1), #8 Film Study (off at 6-1)

Bet Strategy: $60 Win on #5 Heather Divine, $40 Win on #5 Film Study

Result: #1 Matt’s Pride $6.60 win/$3.40 place

Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100

Profit for Week 11: +$104 (on $200 in wagers)