Our “Instant Value Handicapping” video series on YouTube was launched to prove out methods detailed in The Punter’s Tale (A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits). The book focuses on identifying false favorites.
To measure the potential rewards for accurately evaluating favorites, the book also contains a section on choosing alternative bets in those false-favorite races.
Evangeline Downs has been the featured track for weeks 12 through 15. The track has proven to be a gracious host, as we racked up 60% winners (6 for 10) and a ROI of 60.9% ($1,640 returned for $1,000 in wagers, as detailed below).
Also, 8 of 10 false favorites we identified went down to defeat.
Bet-by-Bet Results for Evangeline Downs
WEEK 15. WEDNESDAY, JUNE 2, 2021.
Three false favs identified. Two winners selected against them.
RACE 1
False morning-line favorite: Greeley’s Banker
Alternatives: #4 Navy Times (off at 6-5), #6 Bayou Bode (off at 7-1)
Bet Strategy: $40 Win/$60 Place #4 Navy Times (2-horse dutch becomes 1 horse Win/Place bet at odds under 8-5.)
Result: Navy Times $4.40 win/$2.40 place
Return: $160 ($88 win/$72 place). +$60
RACE 5
False morning-line favorite: Sunday’s Gift
Alternatives: #3 Achancetowin (off at 7-5), #7 Who Dat Grey (off at 5-1)
Bet Strategy: $40 Win/$60 Place on #3 Achancetowin (2-horse dutch becomes 1 horse Win/Place bet at odds under 8-5.)
Result: Achancetowin finished 4th
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 8
False morning-line favorite: Homeland Messa
Alternatives: #7 Tiz The Dude (off at 2-1), #8 Half a Bite (off at 9-1)
Bet Strategy: $80 Win on #7 Tiz The Dude, $20 Win on #8 Half a Bite
Result: Tiz The Dude $6.40 win/$4.60 place
Return: $256 ($256 win/$0 place). +$156
Profit for Week 14: +$116 (on $300 in wagers)
WEEK 14. WEDNESDAY, May 26, 2021.
Three false favs identified. Two winners selected against them.
RACE 1
False morning-line favorite: Typhoon Zing
Alternatives: #4 Ellie D Cajun (off at 14-1), #8 Wholeshackshimmies (off at 2-1)
Bet Strategy: $80 Win on #8 Wholeshackshimmies, $20 Win on #4 Ellie D Cajun
Result: #8 Wholeshackshimmies $6.20 win/$2.40 place
Return: $248 ($248 win/$0 place). +$148
RACE 2
False morning-line favorite: #3 Guitarzan
Alternatives: #2 Binding (off at 2-1), #8 Zipzaptime (off at 6-1)
Bet Strategy: $70 Win on #2 Binding, $30 Win on #8 Freedom Fighter
Result: #2 Binding $6.00 win/$3.40 place
Return: $210 ($210 win/$0 place). +110
RACE 5
False morning-line favorite: #3 Antarctic
Alternatives: #7 Much Class (off at 6-1), #8 Freedom Factor (off at 9-5)
Bet Strategy: $30 Win on #7 Much Class, $70 Win on #8 Freedom Fighter
Result: #3 Antarctic wins
Return: $0 ($0 win/place). -$100
Profit for Week 13: +$158 (on $300 in wagers)
WEEK 13. WEDNESDAY, May 19, 2021.
Two false favs identified (excluding race taken off turf). One winner selected against them in two races.
RACE 3
False morning-line favorite: #4 Tin Delay
Alternatives: #2 Ambassador House (off at 5-1), #9 Dale’s Lil Bro (12-1)
Bet Strategy: $70 Win on #2 Ambassador House, $30 Win on
Result: #2 Ambassador House $13.20 win/$5.00 place
Return: $462 ($462 win/$0 place). +$362
RACE 5
False morning-line favorite: #4 Seven Come Eleven
Alternatives: #2A Custom for Aly/2B D’lady Fired Up (off at 3-1), #6 Here Comes Lovie (5-1)
Bet Strategy: $60 Win on 2A/2B, $40 Win #6 Here Comes Lovie
Result: #1 Anotherinthefire wins
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 7
False morning-line favorite: #7 Antarctic
Alternatives: No bets. Race Taken off turf
Bet Strategy: $0 Win
Result: N/A
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). $0
Profit for Week 12: +$262 (on $200 in wagers)
WEEK 12. WEDNESDAY, May 12, 2021.
Two false favs identified. One winner selected against them.
RACE 2
False morning-line favorite: #4 Traelee
Alternatives: #3 Optimistic (off at 5-2), #5 Royal Galaxy (off at 15-1)
Bet Strategy: $80 Win on #3 Optimistic, $20 Win on #5 Royal Galaxy
Result: #3 Optimistic $7.60 win/$3.40 place
Return: $304 ($304 win/$0 place). +$204
RACE 4
False morning-line favorite: #1 Matt’s Pride
Alternatives: #5 Heather Divine (off at 5-1), #8 Film Study (off at 6-1)
Bet Strategy: $60 Win on #5 Heather Divine, $40 Win on #5 Film Study
Result: #1 Matt’s Pride $6.60 win/$3.40 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
Profit for Week 11: +$104 (on $200 in wagers)
