We launched the “Instant Value Handicapping” channel on YouTube to prove out methods detailed in The Punter’s Tale (A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits). The Punter’s Tale describes how to identify false favorites and select horses to bet against them. With the public betting an inordinate amount of money on a horse likely to lose, value is instantly created on other contenders.
We expect to see a false-favorite failure rate of 75% or higher. By making two-horse bets (or one Win/Place bet as described in the following steps) against these false favorites, we’re shooting for a win rate of 50% or higher.
Living up to our name, LazyBettorUSA, we’ve kept the wagering strategy simple for the “Instant Value Handicapping” video series:
- Examine morning-line favorites at a particular track.
- Bet only on races containing a false favorite.
- Bet two horses, using a hypothetical $100 bankroll for each race. Dutch the bets in $10 increments to get nearly the same return regardless of which horse wins.
- Assuming a long-term 50% win rate, accept odds of 8-5 or higher. If the odds on one horse drop below 8-5, treat that horse as a legitimate favorite and don’t bet against it. Instead, bet only on that horse, using $40 Win/$60 Place as your standard wager to assure a 50% or higher hit rate.
- If the morning-line false favorite is scratched and you haven’t selected the new favorite as one of your alternatives, assume that horse is a false favorite and continue with your wager as described in the steps above.
- For the “Strongest Favorite of the Day” Place bet strategy, wager $100 to Place on the strongest favorite on the card.
- Cancel all bets for turf races if the race is taken off the turf.
All results posted below use these assumptions.
We focused on Evangeline Downs in weeks 12 through 20, with Emerald Downs added in week 19. Both tracks proved to be gracious hosts:
- Betting against false favorites at these two tracks, we racked up 44% winners (11 for 25) and a positive 14.5% ROI ($2,864 returned for $2,500 in wagers, as detailed below).
- Our “Strongest Favorite of the Day” Place bet strategy went 2 for 2 (positive 37.5% ROI), contributing about 3.5% to that 17% positive ROI.
Also, 20 of 24 false favorites (83%) identified went down to defeat. So Instant Value Handicapping steered us to betting in races where the favorite won only 17% of the time, instead of the typical 36% to 38% of all races.
Bet-by-Bet Results for Evangeline Downs and Emerald Downs
WEEK 20. WEDNESDAY, JULY 7, 2021.
EVANGELINE DOWNS
RACE 2
False morning-line favorite: #6 Custom Gulch, 9-5
Alternatives: #5 Totally Grace (off at 1-2) and #7 Birdcatmouse (off at 5-1)
Bet Strategy: $40 Win/$60 Place #5 Totally Grace
Result: #1 Carondelet $9.60 win/$4.80 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 3 (BETS FOR TURF ONLY)
False morning-line favorite: #3 Dueforadate, 2-1
Alternatives: #1 Wild Mallory (off at 1-2) and #5 Ten Count Out (off at 6-1)
Bet Strategy: $40Win/$60 Place #1 Wild Mallory
Result: #1 Wild Mallory $3.00 win/$2.10 place
Return: $150 ($60 win/$90 place). +$50
RACE 4
False morning-line favorite: #8 Silver Maid, 8-5
Alternatives: #4 Daring Darian (off at 3-5) and #5 Toshita Forever (off at 3-1)
Bet Strategy: $40 Win/$60 Place #4 Daring Darian
Result: #4 Daring Darian $0 win/$2.40 place (Winner #7 Blue Ridge Honor $15.00; Silver Maid scratched)
Return: $72 ($0 win/$72 place). -$28
RACE 5
LEGITIMATE favorite: #2 Bernie Special, 2-1
Bet Strategy: $100 Place #2 Bernie Special (“Strongest Favorite of the Day” Place bet)
Result: #2 Bernie Special $0 win/$3.00 place
Return: $150 ($0 win/$150 place). +$50
Profit/Loss for Week 20: -$28 (on $400 in wagers)
WEEK 19. WEDNESDAY, JUNE 30, 2021.
EMERALD DOWNS
One false fav identified. One went down to defeat. Zero winners selected against them. Cashed in on “Strongest Favorite of the Day” Place bet.
RACE 5
LEGITIMATE favorite: #3 Juspassinthru, 2-1
Bet Strategy: $100 Place #3 Juspassinthru (“Strongest Favorite of the Day” Place bet)
Result: #3 Juspassinthru $5.60 win/$3.40 place
Return: $170 ($0 win/$70 place). +$70
RACE 7
False morning-line favorite: #5 Dutton, 8-5
Alternatives: #2 Oh Marvelous Me (off at 8-1) and #7 Catfish Hunter (off at 6-1)
Bet Strategy: $40 Win #2 Oh Marvelous Me, $60 Win #7 Catfish Hunter
Result: #4 Windribbon $11.00 win/$5.60 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
Profit for EMERALD DOWNS Week 19: -$30 (on $200 in wagers)
EVANGELINE DOWNS
Three false favs identified. All three went down to defeat. Two winners selected against them.
RACE 2
False morning-line favorite: #10 Nin to Win, 2-1
Alternatives: #2 Prissy Jaden (off at 8-1) and #4 Grayfully (off at 2-1)
Bet Strategy: $30 Win #2 Prissy Jaden, $70 Win #4 Grayfully
Result: #4 Grayfully $6.80 win/$4.40 place
Return: $238 ($238 win/$0 place). +$138
RACE 4
False morning-line favorite: #10 Go Figure, 2-1
Alternatives: #1 Peaceful Vision (off at 8-5) and #2 Typhoon Zing Slow (off at 7-2)
Bet Strategy: $60 Win #1 Peaceful Vision, $40 Win #2 Typhoon Zing
Result: #1 Peaceful Vision $5.40 win/$3.00 place
Return: $162 ($162 win/$0 place). +$62
RACE 8
False morning-line favorite: #8 Bear Tooth Pass, 9-5
Alternatives: #2 Tap the Cat (off at 6-1), #6 Baby Maybe (9-1)
Bet Strategy: $60 Win #2 Tap the Cat, $40 Win #6 Baby Maybe
Result: #7 Velvet Night $11.00 win/$6.40 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
Profit for EVANGELINE DOWNS Week 19: +$100 (on $300 in wagers)
Profit for Week 19: +$70 (on $500 in wagers)
WEEK 18. WEDNESDAY, JUNE 23, 2021.
Two false favs identified. One went down to defeat. Zero winners selected against them.
RACE 4
False morning-line favorite: #1 Common Law Cat, 9-5
Alternatives: #4 Ambassador House (off at 3-1) and #8 Slow (off at 4-1)
Bet Strategy: $60 Win #4 Ambassador House, $40 Win #8 Slow
Result: #1 Common Law Cat $4.00 win/$2.40 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 8
False morning-line favorite: #4 Lightning Harbour, 9-5
Alternatives: #6 Shady Monkey (off at 5-1) and #8 Impressive Greeley (off at 5-1)
Bet Strategy: $60 Win #6 Shady Monkey, $40 Win #8 Impressive Greeley
Result: #5 Shugs Lil Bro $9.60 win/$4.80 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
Profit for Week 18: -$200 (on $200 in wagers)
WEEK 17. WEDNESDAY, JUNE 16, 2021.
Three false favs identified. Two went down to defeat. Two winners selected against them.
RACE 2
False morning-line favorite: #5 Sandbagger Al, 9-5
Alternatives: #3 Hero of the Hour (off at 7-5), #7 Musical Man (off at 5-2)
Bet Strategy: $40 Win/$60 Place on #3 Hero of the Hour (2-horse dutch becomes 1-horse Win/Place bet at odds under 8-5.)
Result: #3 Hero of the Hour $4.80 win/$3.20 place
Return: $192 ($96 win/$96 place). +$92
RACE 4
False morning-line favorite: #5 Some Would Say, 2-1
Alternatives: #1 Crypto Brave (off at 6-1), #6 Go Figure (off at 2-1)
Bet Strategy: $70 Win #6 Go Figure, $30 Win #1 Crypto Brave
Result: #5 Some Would Say $4.00 win/$3.40 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 7
False morning-line favorite: #7 Shar’s Treasure, 2-1
Alternatives: #5 Young Thomas (off at 5-2), #9 Easy to Miss (off at 5-2)
Bet Strategy: $50 Win #5 Young Thomas, $50 Win #9 Easy to Miss
Result: #9 Easy to Miss $7.40 win/$4.40 place
Return: $185 ($185 win/$0 place). +$85
Profit for Week 17: +$77 (on $300 in wagers)
WEEK 16. WEDNESDAY, JUNE 9, 2021.
Three false favs identified. All three went down to defeat. Zero winners selected against them.
RACE 4
False morning-line favorite: #5 Andiamo Giacomo
Alternatives: #1 Egauxtism (off at 5-2), #2 Wild Firemaker (off at 7-1)
Bet Strategy: $70 Win #1 Egauxtism, $30 Win #2 Wild Firemaker
Result: #6 Thunk $10.20 win/$3.80 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 6
False morning-line favorite: #4 Grayfully
Alternatives: #1 Silver Maid (off at 7-2), #7 Cozzene Zing (off at 22-1)
Bet Strategy: $80 Win #1 Silver Maid, $20 Win #7 Cozzene Zing
Result: #5 Seven Come Eleven $5.60 win/$3.20 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 8
False morning-line favorite: #10 Streamer
Alternatives: #7 Tribute Galaxy (off at 13-1), #9 Arancia (off at 13-1)
Bet Strategy: $50 Win #7 Tribute Galaxy, $50 Win #9 Arancia
Result: #8 Younmehoneybunny $13.00 win/$6.40 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
Profit for Week 16: -$300 (on $300 in wagers)
WEEK 15. WEDNESDAY, JUNE 2, 2021.
Three false favs identified. All three lost. Two winners selected against them. Plus a winning Place bet on strongest favorite of the day.
RACE 1
False morning-line favorite: #2 Greeley’s Banker
Alternatives: #4 Navy Times (off at 6-5), #6 Bayou Bode (off at 7-1)
Bet Strategy: $40 Win/$60 Place #4 Navy Times (2-horse dutch becomes 1-horse Place bet at odds under 8-5.)
Result: Navy Times $4.40 win/$2.40 place
Return: $160 ($88 win/$72 place). +$60
RACE 2
LEGITIMATE morning-line favorite: Shake Some Action, 8-5
Bet Strategy: $100 Place #3 Shake Some Action (“Strongest Favorite of the Day” Place bet)
Result: Shake Some Action $3.20 win/$2.10 place
Return: $105 ($0 win/$105 place). +$5
RACE 5
False morning-line favorite: #5 Sunday’s Gift
Alternatives: #1 Achancetowin (off at 7-5), #7 Who Dat Grey (off at 5-1)
Bet Strategy: $40 Win/$60 Place on #3 Achancetowin (2-horse dutch becomes 1-horse Win/Place bet at odds under 8-5.)
Result: #3 Missbudlitelime $11.20 win/$6.60 place (#1 Achancetowin finished 4th)
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 8
False morning-line favorite: #1 Homeland Messa
Alternatives: #7 Tiz The Dude (off at 2-1), #8 Half a Bite (off at 9-1)
Bet Strategy: $80 Win on #7 Tiz The Dude, $20 Win on #8 Half a Bite
Result: Tiz The Dude $6.40 win/$4.60 place
Return: $256 ($256 win/$0 place). +$156
Profit for Week 15: +$121 (on $400 in wagers)
WEEK 14. WEDNESDAY, May 26, 2021.
Three false favs identified. Two of the 3 lost. Two winners selected against them.
RACE 1
False morning-line favorite: Typhoon Zing
Alternatives: #4 Ellie D Cajun (off at 14-1), #8 Wholeshackshimmies (off at 2-1)
Bet Strategy: $80 Win on #8 Wholeshackshimmies, $20 Win on #4 Ellie D Cajun
Result: #8 Wholeshackshimmies $6.20 win/$2.40 place
Return: $248 ($248 win/$0 place). +$148
RACE 2
False morning-line favorite: #3 Guitarzan
Alternatives: #2 Binding (off at 2-1), #8 Zipzaptime (off at 6-1)
Bet Strategy: $70 Win on #2 Binding, $30 Win on #8 Freedom Fighter
Result: #2 Binding $6.00 win/$3.40 place
Return: $210 ($210 win/$0 place). +110
RACE 5
False morning-line favorite: #3 Antarctic
Alternatives: #7 Much Class (off at 6-1), #8 Freedom Factor (off at 9-5)
Bet Strategy: $30 Win on #7 Much Class, $70 Win on #8 Freedom Fighter
Result: #3 Antarctic wins
Return: $0 ($0 win/place). -$100
Profit for Week 14: +$258 (on $300 in wagers)
WEEK 13. WEDNESDAY, May 19, 2021.
Two false favs identified (excluding race taken off turf). One winner selected against them in two races.
RACE 3
False morning-line favorite: #4 Tin Delay
Alternatives: #2 Ambassador House (off at 5-1), #9 Dale’s Lil Bro (12-1)
Bet Strategy: $70 Win on #2 Ambassador House, $30 Win on #9 Dale’s Lil Bro
Result: #2 Ambassador House $13.20 win/$5.00 place
Return: $462 ($462 win/$0 place). +$362
RACE 5
False morning-line favorite: #4 Seven Come Eleven
Alternatives: #2A Custom for Aly/2B D’lady Fired Up (off at 3-1), #6 Here Comes Lovie (5-1)
Bet Strategy: $60 Win on 2A/2B, $40 Win #6 Here Comes Lovie
Result: #1 Anotherinthefire wins
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
RACE 7
False morning-line favorite: #7 Antarctic
Alternatives: No bets. Race Taken off turf
Bet Strategy: $0 Win
Result: N/A
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). $0
Profit for Week 13: +$262 (on $200 in wagers)
WEEK 12. WEDNESDAY, May 12, 2021.
Two false favs identified. One winner selected against them.
RACE 2
False morning-line favorite: #4 Traelee
Alternatives: #3 Optimistic (off at 5-2), #5 Royal Galaxy (off at 15-1)
Bet Strategy: $80 Win on #3 Optimistic, $20 Win on #5 Royal Galaxy
Result: #3 Optimistic $7.60 win/$3.40 place
Return: $304 ($304 win/$0 place). +$204
RACE 4
False morning-line favorite: #1 Matt’s Pride
Alternatives: #5 Heather Divine (off at 5-1), #8 Film Study (off at 6-1)
Bet Strategy: $60 Win on #5 Heather Divine, $40 Win on #5 Film Study
Result: #1 Matt’s Pride $6.60 win/$3.40 place
Return: $0 ($0 win/$0 place). -$100
Profit for Week 12: +$104 (on $200 in wagers)
