Over a 10-week period from January 23 through March 27, the “Instant Value Handicapping” video series examined races at one thoroughbred racetrack every Saturday. In those races I identified false favorites based on methods in my book The Punter’s Tale (A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits).
The Process Used for Identifying False Favorites
We recorded all these videos on Thursday nights for Saturday’s races, which means I had to use the morning-line odds when judging which favorites were likely to lose. I’m happy to report the false-favorite ID methods in The Punter’s Tale were a resounding success!
Seventeen of the 20 false favorites I identified lost…an amazing 85% success rate. And that was accomplished despite having to predict outcomes days ahead of time.
Put another way, instead of betting against favorites that win 36% of the time, which is about the average in US racing, the viewers of this video series had the chance to bet against favorites capable of winning only 15% of the time. Over time that’s sure to produce more winners at higher prices.
Reviewing the Suggested Horses to Bet
The first seven weeks focused on races at Gulfstream Park. My suggested bets in that span produced a flat-bet loss. After switching to The Fairgrounds in Week 8, my suggested bets produced 4 winners in 6 races and a flat-bet profit.
Overall the 10 weeks produced a 17% loss on the hypothetical $2,000 invested. With 6 winners in 20 races returning $65.60, the average win odds were 9-2. That double-digit payoff over time supports my contention that you’ll land on generous prices in races where the favorite fails.
While the false-favorite ID methods are working superbly, my handicapping needs to improve. The optimistic view is that I just fell two 9-2 winners short of turning a profit.
Adjustments Going Forward
In the rush to launch this video series, I neglected to cover certain “What If” scenarios:
- What if the favorite is scratched? In this case I examine the new favorite. Most likely if the new favorite isn’t one of my bets, he is false.
- What if the morning-line favorite isn’t the race-day favorite? I still recommend betting the race. Even if the M/L favorite ends up as the second choice, he still burns a lot of money in the Win pool. Close enough!
- What if one of my picks becomes the favorite? I still bet the race as long as the odds on my pick are 8-5 or higher. I base that on expectations of a 40% win rate using a 2-horse bet. That leaves me a very small edge, but I like cashing tickets. It keeps me mentally balanced.
Full List of False Favorite and Suggested Bets for Weeks 1 — 10
Week 1, January 23 at Gulfstream Park
Race 3
False favorite: #11 Junkanoo (7-2); finished 7th
$50 win #5 Juulstone (7-1), $50 win #9 Homeland (7-1)
Result: #5 ran 5th, #9 ran 11th (winner paid $19.20)
BET 1: Minus $100
False Favorites: 0/1
Race 9
False favorite: #2 Cinnabunny (3-1); finished 4th
$30 win #5 Piedi Bianchi (10-1), $70 Win #7 Sally’s Curlin (5-1)
Result: #5 ran 3rd, #7 ran 7th (winner paid $34.20)
BET 2: Minus $100
False Favorites: 0/2
Week 2, January 30 at Gulfstream Park
Race 1
False favorite: #10 Wicksters Dream (4-1, scratched); #2 R Man Joe (5-2) finished 6th
$50 win #7 Weekend Dreamer (9-1), $50 win #8 Unprecedented (11-1)
Result: #7 wins $20.20, #8 ran 3rd
BET 3: Plus $405
False Favorite: 0/3
Race 5
False favorite: #2 Man of Vision (7-2); wins and pays $6.00
$80 win #4 Kalu (4-1), $20 win #6 Dr Harlan (19-1)
Result: #4 ran 2nd, #6 ran 6th
BET 4: Minus $100
False Favorites: 1/4
Race 11
False favorite: #7 Greatest Honour (5-2); wins and pays $7.60
$80 win #5 Tarantino (26-1), $20 win #6 Prime Factor (6-5)
Result: #5 ran 2nd, #6 ran 3rd
BET 5: Minus $100
False Favorites: 2/5
Week 3, February 6 at Gulfstream Park
Race 6
False favorite: #3 La Signare (7-5, scratched)
$0 win #2 Great Island (2-5), $0 win #4 Logic N Reason (scratched)
Result: Great Island wins $2.60
- NO BETS, RACE TAKEN OFF TURF
$0
Week 4, February 13 at Gulfstream Park
Race 1
False favorite: #5 Pharoah’s Gold (5-2); finished last
$20 win #3 Greenwood Drive (11-1), $80 win #6 Pugin (5-2)
Result: #3 ran 6th, #6 ran 2nd (winner paid $10.40)
BET 6: Minus $100
False Favorites: 2/6
Race 9
False favorite: #2 Hoponthebusgus (5-2); finished 7th
$50 win #4 Jost Saying (9-1), $50 win #6 Towa (8-1)
Result: #6 ran 2nd, #4 ran 4th (winner paid $12.60)
BET 7: Minus $100
False Favorites: 2/7
Week 5, February 20 at Gulfstream Park
Race 5
False favorite: #6 Combination (6-5); finished 2nd
$20 win #3 Young Raymond (17-1), $80 win #4 Dr Harlan (8-1)
Result: #4 ran 4th, #3 ran 5th (winner paid $9.80)
BET 8: Minus $100
False Favorites: 2/8
Week 6, February 27 at Gulfstream Park
Race 4
False favorite: #3 Tide of the Sea (5-2); finished 2nd
$30 win #4 Moon Over Miami (7-1), $70 win #8 Admission Office (3-1)
Result: #4 ran 3rd, #8 ran 6th (winner paid $15.60)
BET 9: Minus $100
False Favorites: 2/9
Race 10
False favorite: #2 Opry (5-2); finished 9th
$60 win #4 Sayaaf (5-1), $40 win 11 First Premio (7-1)
Result: #4 wins $13.40, #11 ran 5th
BET 10: Plus $302
False Favorites: 2/10
Week 7, March 6 at Gulfstream Park
Race 1
False favorite: #1 Caramel Swirl (5-2); finished 3rd
$10 win #4 Scarlett Lace (17-1), $90 win #6 Nevisian Sunrise (5-2)
Result: #6 ran 2nd, #4 ran 9th (winner paid $8.80)
BET 11: Minus $100
False Favorites: 2/11
Race 5
False favorite: #2 Lavi (5-2); wins and pays $4.80
$20 win #3 Subsidiary (3-1), $80 win #6 Dana Grace (4-1)
Result: #3 ran 2nd, #6 ran 6th
BET 12: Minus $100
False Favorites: 3/12
Race 6
False favorite: #11 Pleasecallmeback (3-1); finished 2nd
$20 win #4 Emoji Guy (6-1), $80 win #10 Seize the Hay (7-1)
Result: #4 ran 6th, #10 ran 7th (winner paid $8.60)
BET 13: Minus $100
False Favorites: 3/13
Race 8
False favorite: #Antigone (7-5); finished 4th
$20 win #3 Callmesenorita (14-1), $80 win #6 Lady Fiorella (15-1)
Result: #3 ran 5th, #6 ran 3rd (winner paid $5.60)
BET 14: Minus $100
False Favorites: 3/14
Week 8, March 13 at The Fairgrounds
Race 3
False favorite: #4 Sensible Myth (3-1); finished 3rd
$60 win #2 Zabava (2-1), $40 win #8 Strollin the Bayou (3-1)
Result: #8 wins $8.40, #2 ran 5th
BET 15: Plus $68
False Favorites: 3/15
Race 5
False favorite: #1 Play Unified (5-2); finished 5th
$20 win #3 Sunshine Deelite (6-1), $80 win #4 Dr. Liz (10-1)
Result: #4 ran 2nd, #3 ran 8th (winner paid $20.60)
BET 16: Minus $100
False Favorites: 3/16
Race 6
False favorite: #8 Break At Dawn (7-2); finished 6th
$40 win #2 Microcap (3-1), $60 win #6 Powder River (6-5)
Result: #2 wins $8.00, #6 ran 3rd
BET 17: Plus $60
False Favorites: 3/17
Week 9, March 20 at The Fairgrounds
Race 4
False favorite: #1 Elle M’a Souri (3-1); finished 7th
$50 win #2 Peter’s Kitten (3-1), $50 win #4 Three Flamingos (7-2)
Result: #4 wins $9.40, #2 ran 3rd
BET 18: Plus $135
False Favorites: 3/18
Race 13
False favorite: #6 Clariere (2-1); finished 2nd
$40 win #5 Obligatory (7-2), $60 win #8 Travel Column (2-1)
Result: #8 wins $6.20, #5 ran 4th
BET 19: Plus $86
False Favorites: 3/19
Week 10, March 27 at The Fairgrounds
Race 11
False favorite: #8 Underpressure (5-2); finished 5th
$60 win #7 Jus Lively (3-2), $40 win #9 Relentless Dancer (3-1)
Result: #7 Jus Lively ran 2nd, #9 finished 6th
BET 20: Minus $100
False Favorites: 3/20
