Kentucky Derby Counterpoints: The Creatures from the Outside Posts!

With the post-position draw for Kentucky Derby 150 just days away, the hand-wringing and hypothesizing about positional advantages and disadvantages will soon grow thicker than Kentucky blue grass in a fertilized field. We at Lazy Bettor Guides would like to provide a metaphorical scythe to chop back all the pretty but obscuring hay. Sweating an […]

RTSS False-Favorite Report, Saturday, April 27, 2024

Friday started off well, with our 4-1 shot Have You Heard taking the Aqueduct opener and Login Required, the 4-5 favorite we labeled as false, finishing out of the money. Dangerous Ride, the 2-1 favorite we identified as false in Aqueduct’s 4th race, also cooperated by finishing out of the money. Alas, we had to […]

RTSS False-Favorite Report, Friday, April 26, 2024

What a weekend! What a month of free Racetrack Super Scout reports! Last week’s RTSS reports delivered 4 winners in 6 races, with 5 of 6 false favs going down to defeat. We’ve now correctly identified false favorites in 13 of the past 15 races we’ve analyzed, and we’ve come up with 6 winners in […]

Kentucky Derby Counterpoints: Are Favorites Less Likely to Win than in Other Races?

The “Kentucky Derby Counterpoints” series statistically challenges common assumptions about America’s most popular horse race. To read all articles in the series, go to and click on the Kentucky Derby tab. You’ll often hear the warning, “It doesn’t make sense to bet the favorite in a 20-horse field.” Maybe that’s accurate in Irish steeplechase […]

3 Reasons Why Forte Won’t Win The Kentucky Derby

We’re going to take a look at the Florida Derby! Forte won the Florida Derby this year, cementing his spot as the early Kentucky Derby favorite. What can we say about Forte that you haven’t heard before? Well, how about we see him as unlikely to win the Kentucky Derby!  Let’s take a play-by-play look […]

Lazy Bettor Guides False-Favorite Report, Saturday, April 22, 2023

Yesterday the stated goal was to build our Kentucky Derby bankrolls. With 3 winners in 4 races, RTSS certainly put us on that path! The winners paid $5.90, $9.60 and $13.20. And all four false favorites lost! Back to work… AQUEDUCT RACE 3. Nongraded Stakes. 1 Mile. Turf (Analysis for turf only). False Favorite: #4 […]