Kentucky Derby Counterpoints: Are Favorites Less Likely to Win than in Other Races?

The “Kentucky Derby Counterpoints” series statistically challenges common assumptions about America’s most popular horse race. To read all articles in the series, go to and click on the Kentucky Derby tab. You’ll often hear the warning, “It doesn’t make sense to bet the favorite in a 20-horse field.” Maybe that’s accurate in Irish steeplechase […]

Lazy Bettor Guides Unpuzzles the Preakness

Early Voting result predicted in RTSS subscriber service After falling a length shy of notching our 6th winner in the past 9 years in the Kentucky Derby, Lazy Bettor Guides uncovered great value in the Preakness. We reserved our pick for Racetrack Super Scout (RTSS) subscribers and delivered an analysis of the Preakness that was […]

Leveraging the Lazy Bettor in the Kentucky Derby

In the free LazyBettorUSA January newsletter we offered positive comments about the following eight horses in Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 2: Three of the eight horses on that list qualified for the 2022 Kentucky Derby, including the projected Derby favorite Epicenter. And we made these calls in January! How did we do it? We used the […]

Racetrack Super Scout Figuring Kentucky Derby Horses Out

Lazy Bettor Guides’ Racetrack Super Scout (RTSS) scouts out false favorites every Friday and Saturday. As a bonus we include our analysis of major Kentucky Derby prep races. Using methods detailed in The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby (included with an RTSS subscription), we’ve keyed in on winners of 5 of 6 stakes […]

White Abarrio Slogs to Victory in 2022 Florida Derby

On Saturday a Florida Derby field of 11 took aim at victory and Kentucky Derby qualifying points. But it was the betting public that emerged as the sharpest beast on the premises, with the top three wagering choices filling the trifecta. The horses, themselves? Not so impressive. White Abarrio crossed the finish line first as […]

Four Reasons to Take a Different Secret Oath for the Arkansas Derby

Context is important in all aspects of life. And placing facts in context is an essential quality for horseplayers looking to turn a profit. This week context is what’s missing from the wave of accolades pouring in for Arkansas Derby favorite Secret Oath. Successful players (bettors overcoming the 17% average takeout on wagers) know not […]

2022 Louisiana Derby: Epicenter Creates Huge Kentucky Derby Rumblings

On Saturday at the Fair Grounds, Epicenter easily put away his rivals in the 2022 Louisiana Derby. But he didn’t just outrun the 2022 field. Even more impressively, he broke the track record set last year by Hot Rod Charlie. With regular rider Joel Rosario aboard, Epicenter broke alertly and full of run. Rosario reined […]

2022 Fountain of Youth Stakes: Simplification Gets Complicated

At Gulfstream Park last Saturday in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, Simplification continued to make things complicated. In his prior race, the Holy Bull Stakes, Simplification threw his head at the start and spotted his rivals a huge lead. He rallied for third place, but in doing so failed to switch leads in the stretch. […]