2015 Lazy Bettor Kentucky Derby Preview (revisited)

[Editor’s Note: The 2015 Kentucky Derby results were as follows: American Pharoah first, Firing Line second and Dortmund third. Following are excerpts from Roger LeBlanc’s Kentucky Derby Preview originally published at smashwords.com prior to the 2015 Derby.] American Pharoah and Firing Line get little respect [from speed-figure publishers] for popping the springs on the timer. […]

2021 Arkansas Derby Preview

Will Oaklawn Park Be the Scene for the Return of the Pharoah? On Saturday Bob Baffert’s trainee Concert Tour will go to post as the huge favorite in the Arkansas Derby. He earned that honor with a 4-length victory last time out in the Rebel Stakes. The most impressive aspect of his Rebel win wasn’t […]

Repeatable Patterns Lead To Consistent Profits!

Last week I posted brief comments about the Florida Derby. I warned that the overwhelming (4-5) favorite, Greatest Honour, was unlikely to win. Indeed, Greatest Honour managed to grab only a minor third-place award in that race. Most bettors, as well as Greatest Honour’s trainer Shug McGaughey, assumed the stretchout from 8.5 furlongs to 9 […]

Instant Value Handicapping 10-Week Review

Over a 10-week period from January 23 through March 27, the “Instant Value Handicapping” video series examined races at one thoroughbred racetrack every Saturday. In those races I identified false favorites based on methods in my book The Punter’s Tale (A Bettor’s Quest for Racetrack Profits). The Process Used for Identifying False Favorites We recorded […]

Put the pedal to the metal; the real 3-year-old racing season begins!

Revealed within the pages of my book The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derbyare the talents top Kentucky Derby contenders display on the road to Louisville. Also detailed in those pages are characteristics that don’t lead to a successful “Run for the Roses” on the first Saturday in May. A careful examination of Derby […]

2020 Lazy Bettor Kentucky Derby Preview: Honoring the law

Regardless of pandemics, political protests and schedule changes, the Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby remains the most likely path to cashing a ticket on the Derby winner. With 5 winners in the 6 years since its publication, the book’s Gold Standard ‘tis practically the law. Tiz The Law, this year’s favorite, ranks as […]

2019 Kentucky Derby Preview: Improvisation Reigns

Improvisation. It’s the engine that powers jazz. The catalyst for comedy. The enemy of the expected. And along the Kentucky Derby Trail this year, improvisation reigns supreme. I find it fitting, then, that I’m forced to improvise on the reliable handicapping methods I devised in The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby. In The Lazy Bettor’s […]

2018 Kentucky Derby Preview: Odds and Endings

Clarity. That word best describes the point I reach each spring as I apply lessons learned from my 26 years of Kentucky Derby research. The stories the media shares about the contenders and their human connections vary year to year, but the race’s ending almost always turns out the same. Speed rules. From 1992 through […]

2017 Kentucky Derby Preview: An Embarrassment of Riches

Around 2002, after studying 10 years’ worth of Kentucky Derby results, I felt ready to etch my Gold Standard parameters in stone. When my two Gold Standard qualifiers in 2003 (Funny Cide and Empire Maker) finished first and second, I began etching faster than Rembrandt on Red Bull. Then came the dry years. From 2004 […]

2016 Kentucky Derby Preview: The Tortoise and the Hare Square Off Again

The 1997 Kentucky Derby. That’s the first time I doubted the old saw, “Slow and steady wins the race.” You had the late-running Captain Bodgit favored over the speedy Silver Charm. Silver Charm won that one, running near the lead the whole way. The slow-and-steady Captain rallied impressively but came up a neck or two […]