To illustrate the effectiveness of The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby, we created the Lazy Bettor Guides Triple Crown Trail Predict-O-Meter. It tracks our predictions (appearing primarily in Racetrack Super Scout reports) in 2023 Kentucky Derby preps and other stakes races for 3-year-olds.
Below, we list all 3-year-old stakes races we covered, beginning with the Gun Runner Stakes on December 26, 2022. We’ll update the list throughout the spring.
Be sure to check out our Predict-O-Meter for last year’s Kentucky Derby preps and the Triple Crown races. In the 18 stakes races we analyzed, we caught 8 winners! Another 7 selections finished second. Clearly our approach zeroes in on top-level emerging stars.
To see what measures we use to compile such a sterling record, you can purchase The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby in our Shop. Or you can get an electronic copy for free by purchasing an RTSS subscription!
Here’s the list of our 2023 selections up to and including the Belmont Stakes (13 winners in 26 stakes races for 3-year-olds that we covered):
- December 26, 2022, Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds: RTSS pick Jace’s Road finished 1st at $2.40-1. “With an inside post and the best demonstrated early speed, this $500,000 yearling trained by Brad Cox owns advantages in key categories. He tops the field in terms of pedigree, connections (Florent Geroux rides) and speed.”
- January 1, 2023, Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park: RTSS pick Victory Formation finished 1st at $.60-1. “Victory Formation won’t be overly pressured early…. With Prat named to ride, Cox is signaling he thinks this runner is a legitimate Derby prospect…. VF should not only survive the mile but absolutely crush it against this field.”
- January 7, 2023, Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct: RTSS pick Lugan Knight finished 1st at $3.55-1.* “His MSW win at Keeneland might’ve been enough for us to back him in this event…. The followup, a third-place finish behind eventual Gun Runner winner Victory Formation, was even more impressive…. He has the speed to lead or rate, and he finishes his sprints more strongly than his rivals here.”
- January 14, 2023, Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs: RTSS pick Handsome Playboy finished 4th at $3.50-1.* “He finished a game second in the Inaugural Stakes on December 3, a race in which the three top finishers all came back to win their next starts.”
- January 21, 2023, Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds: RTSS pick Confidence Game finished 3rd at $6.10-1.* “His winning time in that [Churchill allowance] race was faster than the time for the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes that took place three races later.”
- January 28, 2023, Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park: RTSS pick Corona Bolt finished 6th at $2.70-1.* “With two superb sprint victories he should be primed for the stretchout.”
- February 11, 2023, Withers Stakes at Aqueduct: RTSS pick Hit Show finished 1st at $1.30-1. “Hit Show is our solo bet in this race, and we view any odds above even money to be a bargain.”
- February 11, 2023, Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs: RTSS pick Litigate finished 1st at $2.80-1.* “Litigate made a middle move into a torrid early pace last time out and held well for second.”
- February 18, 2023, Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds: RTSS pick Victory Formation finished 9th at $1.80-1. “With two superb sprint victories he should be primed for the stretchout.”
- February 25, 2023, Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes at Oaklawn Park: RTSS pick Wet Paint finished 1st at $1.70-1. “…we noticed she finished her final sixteenth of a mile in 6 seconds flat….. We think she’ll mow down all or most of them again. She’ll be our solo bet to Win and Place.”
- February 25, 2023, Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park: RTSS pick Reincarnate finished 3rd at $4.80-1.* “”…both his early splits and final times keep improving. The fast pace in his first stakes race didn’t dent his armor at all.”
- March 4, 2023, Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct: RTSS pick Lugan Knight finished 7th at $6.30-1.* “He finished his Jerome Stakes victory with a strong final quarter of a mile.”
- March 4, 2023, Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream: RTSS pick Cyclone Mischief finished 3rd at $15.60-1.* “The long odds for a horse with a top-3 speed figure makes him a runner we can’t pass on.”
- March 4, 2023, San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita: RTSS pick Skinner finished 3rd at $2.80-1.* “Skinner is a closer who just demolished a maiden field.”
- March 11, 2023, Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs: RTSS pick Tapit Trice finished 1st at $.50-1. “Tapit Trice has two impressive wins, one on a muddy track at Aqueduct and one on a fast track at Gulfstream. It looks like everything is going according to plan.”
- March 25, 2023, Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds: RTSS pick Jace’s Road finished 3rd at 6.20-1.* “With Jace’s Road you get the high speed figure, a pace advantage and long odds.”
- April 1, 2023, Florida Derby at Gulfstream: RTSS pick Forte finished 1st at $.30-1. “He has earned favoritism with two laughingly easy graded stakes wins…. Forte seems to have little to worry about [in this race].” [We also stated Mage and Cyclone Mischief were the only real competitors. They finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively.]
- April 1, 2023, Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park: RTSS pick Reincarnate finished 3rd at $3.30-1.* “Despite a horrible trip last time, he rallied well for show.” [We accurately predicted that Rocket Can would end up favored and had little chance of winning.]
- April 8, 2023, Wood Memorial at Aqueduct: RTSS pick Dreamlike finished 3rd at $3.30-1.* “Pletcher is doing more than dreaming with this maiden runner. This blend of speed and stamina often signals greater things ahead.”
- April 8, 2023, Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland: RTSS pick Tapit Trice finished 1st at $1.64-1. “Unlike Hit Show in the Wood Memorial, Tapit Trice holds huge advantages over his rivals in terms of finish times and best speed figure.”
- April 8, 2023, Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita: RTSS pick Practical Move finished 1st at $1.00-1. “With tactical speed and brilliant stretch runs in his most recent races, he looks tough to beat.” [We recommended a solo exacta box with Practical Joke and Mandarin Hero. The $1 exacta payout was $15.10.]
- May 5, 2023, Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs: RTSS pick Wonder Wheel finished 9th at $10.32-1.* “She has been working superbly at Churchill Downs…and is just 1 of 2 Grade 1 winners in this race.”
- May 6, 2023, Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs: RTSS pick Derma Sotogake finished 6th at $7.80-1.* “We can’t say for sure that Derma Sotogake fits our Gold Standard like American Pharoah did. But we see enough evidence to suggest he might rank with Gold Standard winners in the recent past.”
- May 13, 2023, Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park: RTSS pick Arcangelo finished 1st at $2.75-1.* “The outstanding winning time of 1:34.4 in his maiden score has us believing a step into the Big Leagues for him might work out.“
- May 20, 2023, Preakness at Pimlico: RTSS pick National Treasure finished 1st at $7.80-1.* “The one possible path to an upset [of Mage] belongs to Bob Baffert’s starter, National Treasure…. The absence of any early-speed types might leave him in a comfortable spot on the front end. With Mage continuing to have gate issues, that early advantage could prove insurmountable.“
- June 10, 2023, Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park: RTSS pick Arcangelo finished 1st at $7.90-1.* “This son of Arrogate is lightly raced and looks to be still improving. At 8-1 he might richly reward anyone betting he’ll emerge as a top 3-year-old. Any further improvement could put him near the top of the charts heading into the summer stakes series.“
NOTE: RTSS uses a system of 2-horse bets (marked by asterisks in the list). If one selected horse goes off at 2-1 or lower, that runner becomes a solo bet. All solo bets have no asterisk shown in list.
