2022 Triple Crown Trail Predict-O-Meter (March through June 2022)

To illustrate the effectiveness The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby, we created the Lazy Bettor Guides Triple Crown Trail Predict-O-Meter. It tracks predictions we made (primarily in Racetrack Super Scout reports) for the 2022 Kentucky Derby preps and in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

Below, we list all 3-year-old stakes races we covered from March 5 (when we launched RTSS) through the Belmont Stakes in June. In the 18 stakes races we analyzed, we caught 8 winners! Another 7 selections finished second. Clearly our approach zeroes in on top-level emerging stars.

Be sure to check out our Predict-O-Meter for Kentucky Derby 149 prep races as they unfold in 2023. To see how we compiled such a sterling record, you can purchase The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby in our Shop. Or you can get an electronic copy for free by purchasing an RTSS subscription!

Here’s the list of our 2022 selections:

  • March 5, 2022, Gulfstream, Palm Beach Stakes (turf): RTSS pick Main Event finished 2nd at $3.50-1.* “The theme here again is patient turf jockey who will wait for early speedsters to fade. This horse won on the lead last time, but comments note Jose Ortiz had him well reserved. Looks like he can improve.”
  • March 5, 2022, Gulfstream, Honey Fox Stakes (turf): RTSS pick In Italian finished 1st at $2.70-1.* “While most of her rivals have reached Grade 3 as a ceiling, this lightly raced filly might be using a Grade 3 as a springboard to better races.”
  • March 5, 2022, Gulfstream, Fountain of Youth: RTSS pick Simplification finished 1st at $2.50-1.* “You can see how Simplification and A.P.’s Secret run fast early and fast mid race. Most importantly they also run faster than their current rivals late in the race despite working harder than them early. Very impressive!”
  • March 5, 2022, Fair Grounds, Black Gold Stakes (turf): RTSS pick Tommy Bee finished 2nd at $2.10-1. * “Has run 3 good races since donning blinkers. Like the post, tactical speed and consistency.”
  • March 12, 2022, TB Downs, Tampa Bay Derby: RTSS pick Classic Causeway finished 1st at $.80-1. Classic Causeway (8-5) stands out as the class of the field. In winning the Sam Davis Stakes at this track last time out, Classic Causeway exposed the weaknesses of several highly regarded Derby prospects.”
  • March 19, 2022, Gulfstream, Hutcheson Stakes: RTSS pick Provocateur finished 1st at $2.50-1. “[His prior] race shows he belongs with stakes horses, and the cut back in distance seems like a big plus.”
  • March 26, 2022, Fair Grounds, Louisiana Derby: RTSS pick Epicenter finished 1st at $1.00-1. “I’ve been on the Epicenter bandwagon since before the Lecomte.”
  • April 2, 2022, Gulfstream, Florida Derby: RTSS pick Classic Causeway finished 11th at $3.70-1.* “His professionalism early and in midrace and his widening victory margins through the stretch suggest trainer Brian Lynch has only scratched the surface of his talent.”
  • April 2, 2022, Oaklawn Park, Arkansas Derby: RTSS pick Cyberknife finished 1st at $5.80-1.* “His allowance win at the Fair Grounds ranks as one of the fastest clockings at 8.5 furlongs on the Kentucky Derby trail this year. He owns a topnotch pedigree and has one of the best trainers in the country getting him ready.”
  • April 9, 2022, Aqueduct, Wood Memorial: RTSS pick Early Voting finished 2nd at $2.40-1. “His Maiden win as a 2-year-old was significantly faster than Morello’s stakes win as a 3-year-old.” [Morello finished out of the money.]
  • April 9, 2022, Aqueduct, Bay Shore Stakes: RTSS pick Highly Respected finished 2nd at $2.90-1.* “He won his debut very professionally, stalking the leader and then drawing away late in fast time.”
  • April 9, 2022, Keeneland, Blue Grass Stakes: RTSS pick Emmanuel finished 3rd at $5.50-1.* “This field lacks speed, though, and Emmanuel might get the soft pace he needs.”
  • April 16, 2022, Keeneland, Lexington Stakes: RTSS pick Major General finished 2nd at $7.10-1.* “This Pletcher/Ortiz combo hits at nearly 40%, and they have a horse with tons of natural speed who has finished strongly in his two victories.”
  • May 6, 2022, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Oaks: RTSS pick Echo Zulu finished 4th at $4.00-1.* “Her most recent race off a long layoff looks like a great conditioner for this event.”
  • May 7, 2022, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby: RTSS pick Epicenter finished 2nd at $4.10-1.* “He qualifies for the Gold Standard detailed in The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby, which has shown a huge win percentage and profit since 1992. And he seems to still be improving…”
  • May 21, 2022, Pimlico, The Preakness: RTSS pick Early Voting finished 1st at $5.70-1.* “A patient approach by Epicenter, which is what we expect to see, will leave Early Voting as either the lone speed or controlling speed. The two other early runners…present no challenge for Early Voting, who carved out above-average fractions in the Wood Memorial.”
  • June 11, 2022, Belmont Park, Acorn Stakes: RTSS pick Matareya finished 1st at $.30-1. “Her raw times for 6 furlongs have been sensational, with a 1:08.4 at the Fair Grounds and a 1:09.0 at Churchill last time out. She drew away in the stretch even after posting fast early fractions, so adding a furlong shouldn’t be a problem.”
  • June 11, 2022, Belmont Park, Belmont Stakes: RTSS pick Nest finished 2nd at $5.30-1.* “She doesn’t break sharply, but she accelerates quickly and likes to sit on or near the lead. And she seems more capable than the favorite [We The People] of handling a fast early pace.” [We The People finished out of the money.]

NOTE: RTSS uses a system of 2-horse bets (marked by asterisks in the list). If one selected horse goes off at odds lower than 2-1, that runner becomes a solo bet (no asterisk shown in list).