Thanks Roger for your insightful and helpful analysis of what happened in the Haskell. Tough race to watch I am VERY impressed with your false favorites weekly report that includes 2 alternative win bets instead of the favorite. Keep up the good work!
Do you bet on horses based primarily on their recent performance? Or do you bet primarily based on odds? According to venerable handicapping author Mark Cramer, it doesn’t have to be an either/or choice.
I chose a different approach in a search for value. I used the betting strategy detailed in The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby. That led me to six contenders with the running style approximating the one recommended in the book. To earn the biggest bang for my buck, I bet all six in exactas on top of option 24, “All Other Colts and Geldings”:
The performance-based similarities between Nyquist and prior Kentucky Derby stars establishes him as a Gold Standard bet. Both history and the relative quality of competitors this year lead to that logical and measurable conclusion.
American Pharoah’s overall figures are clearly the best. The 92/92 profile places his Arkansas Derby win among the top 5 prep-race performances on dirt since 2000.
Roger LeBlanc For casual fans the 2021 Breeders Cup races are now relegated to the past. Just a hazy memory. For serious handicappers they’ve become
Results from the “Instant Value Handicapping” video series on YouTube.com. Based on the book, “The Punter’s Tale” by Roger LeBlanc.
The Kentucky Derby is the one horse race that I never miss. I cannot begin to tell you how excited I am about this book. The author is a wonderful writer that is able to both entertain and inform at the same time. The book grabs you with stories of 1 on 1 battles between champion horses that make you feel like you are at the race and on the edge of your seat. If there were nothing more I would consider the book to be a winner. But the best part is this book will make you money and a winner. What else can you ask for? Enjoy!
Copyright Lazy Bettor Guides 2021
